Edmonton Real Estate Blog

Edmonton, February 2, 2010: Single family homes sold through the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® System sold on average for the same amount in January as at year-end while condominium prices dipped 2%. Month-to-month sales slowed by 6.8% as compared to December but the number of new listings in January doubled the December numbers. 

The average* residential price was $314,783 for January, down 1.4% from last month and down just 0.7% from a year ago. Single family home prices on average were stable increasing minutely from $366,761 in December to $367,747 in January. Condominium prices dipped just 2% in the month from $244,174 to $239,006. Duplex and rowhouse prices were up 1.5% to $300,563.

“There will be month-to-month fluctuations in prices for all types of properties,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “We expect that the local market will continue to be robust and prices will trend upwards through the year.”

Compared to December, housing sales were down in January with 524 single family sales and 288 condominium sales. Total residential sales were 884 units – 154 ahead of last January. There were 2,199 residential listings added during January resulting in a 40% sales-to-listing ratio and a month-end inventory of 4,864 homes. The average days-on-market was 57 days. Total sales (including residential, commercial and rural properties) in January were valued at $315 million (up 19% from last year).

“While the low prices may have motivated some buyers, the continuing low interest rates are probably a bigger factor for first time and repeat buyers,” said Westergard. “The inventory increase shows that current owners are poised to enter the market and to offer their homes for sale. Buyers and sellers should consult their REALTOR® to work out an appropriate strategy for their situation.”

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Highlights of MLS® activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.

Source: REALTORS® Association of Edmonton

It is interesting what people know – ‘inside people’ that is.  This weekend I started working with a buyer that I had not worked with before.  During the time we spent together I asked her why she was looking to buy a home at this time.  Basically what she said to me was because of working at Alberta Treasury Branch she is aware what is going to be happening to interst rates and their forecast of rising prices this year.  She felt that she needs to buy now before prices and interest rates go up.

As of this morning there are 1,419 active single family dwellings for sale in Edmonton proper.  In the last 30 days we have had only 380 sales.  Again the sales were slow but expected to have a seasonal slow down in January.  However that give us a listing to sales ration of 3.73:1, which is a drop from last weeks number of 4:32:1, and below the 4:1 ratio that we need for a neutral market.

This ratio would support the fact that we are going to start seeing upward pressure on valuations as long as that ratio stays below that 4:1 ratio.

So if you are a first time buyer please don’t wait, we know that valuations are going to go up and that interest rates are going to go up.  Also, if you are thinking about moving to a larger and more expensive home you want to sell and buy right away before valuations go up.  The reason for that can best be explained in this example:  Let’s just assume that your current home is worth $300,000 and the next home you will buy will be valued at $500,000.  If the market were to rise 10% then your home would go up $30,000, but the home you would be buying will have gone up $50,000.  Waiting to get a higher selling price will actually cost you $20,000.  So make the move now before valuations go up, and now while there is limited competition to sell your home.

Please call me if you have any questions about this, or anything else related to Real Estate – I would love to help you out. (780) 634-8151

Team Leading Edge… Leading the way with extraordinary service

Hello everyone,

I am back from the holiday from hell and ready to get back to work.  By the way just a hint never loose your wallet with all your bank cards and credit cards in China.

I see that since I have been gone the market has really stabilized.  As of this afternoon there are 1,409 single family homes listed in Edmonton proper.  That is a slight drop from it was before I left on my holiday.  However the number that has dropped the most significantly is the number of sales which dropped to 326 in the last 30 days.

That would give us a listing to sales ratio of 4.32:1 the highest ratio that we have seen in almost a year.  Normally with that kind of ratio I would expect a downward pressure on house valuations.  However we do have to take into considertation the time of year we are in right now.

If this number doesn’t improve by the middle of February then I will start to get concern about valuations dropping.  But with the the threat of interest rates going up this year I think that we will start seeing people come off the fence and start buying again.

So lets see what the numbers start to look like by the middle of February before we get excited one way or another.

Well I hope you all had a Happy Holiday!! Now it is time to start thinking about what might happen in the New Year. Current data that I use to forecast the market are skewed right now because of the holiday season so we will wait until we have new data next month to see where the market is going.

It seems the consensus that home values will go up in the New Year, but I don’t think that it will be as much as most people think.

Yes, there are parts of Canada that the market is really getting hot again – but that is only because their home values had dropped more than we had, and their economies were more depressed than what we had experienced here in Edmonton, and Alberta for that matter.

The recovery in the USA isn’t going as well as most people had hoped, and that will slow down any recovery we have here in Canada as they are our biggest trading partner.

I think we will more likely to see a 5% increase in home values as that would be more realistic. We might be able to get lucky and get up to 10%.

But this all could be brought to a halt or slow down as the finance minister is worried that Canadian people have taken on more debt than they ever have in the past. He is thinking about possibly making changes that will affect mortgages and real estate.

Some of the changes they are considering are raising the amount of down payment up from the current 5% to at least 10%. They are also talking about shortening the amortization period from the current 35 years. Another expectation is that the interest rates will be going up this year.

These factors will have a great impact on the ability for people to buy homes, especially for first time buyers. They will now have to wait longer to save for a down payment and they will now qualify for less of a home because of the lower amortization period.

The real estate cycle starts with the first time buyer. They need to get into the market so that everyone else can sell their home and move up into a bigger or more expensive home.

In my opinion if any of these changes are implemented you can expect the real estate market to slow down and curb the chances of valuations to go up.

So if you are a first time buyer I would advise you to do everything in your power to buy sooner than later. We might be able to help you with this process including helping you to get pre-approved with the lowest rates possible ( in many cases lower than the banks), and we can send you a first time buyer package.

To receive the package call Kate at my office at 780-643-8151 or send her an e-mail @ teamleadingedge@shaw.ca

Lets see what this month will give us and hopefully we will have a better indication as to what we can expect in this springs marketplace, and that is my two cents… Serge

Edmonton, January 5, 2010: Residential sales through the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® were at the second highest level ever for December (after a record number of sales in 2006 of 1,074). Sales of single family homes, condominiums, duplexes and other residential property totalled 948 units for the month. Total sales of all types of real estate for December was 1,066, also a second place finish for monthly sales.

The price of residential property remained stable in December with single family homes dropping just  one third of a percent and condos increasing 5.4% to reverse the 2.5% drop in November. An average* priced single family property in the Edmonton area sold for $366,761 in December; down from $368,018 in November. The average price for a condo was $244,174; up from $231,684 the previous month. The all-residential average price at the end of December was $319,201.

“Strong year-end sales put a crown on a year that started slow but ended big,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “We entered 2009 with a global recession at our backs and a real estate meltdown to the south. However consumer confidence in Alberta started to return in the second quarter and the real estate market in Edmonton was the first place in the country to show signs of the recovery.”

There were 19,139 residential sales in 2009 with record setting sales in June and July after the slowest start since 1996. From September to December residential sales were just below record sales set in 2006.

Throughout the year the average single family sale prices varied from a low of $347,000 in February to $373,000 in July; a $26,000 or 7.5% spread. The average year-to-date value was $364,032. Condo prices varied within a 9% range from $227,000 in February to $247,000 in June. The average year-to-date price was $240,322.

There were 1,118 homes listed in December resulting in a sales-to-listing ratio of 85%. The average days-on-market was 50 days and total residential sales were valued at $302 million for the month. Overall, the MLS® System had total sales of all types of property of just under $7 billion in 2009 as compared to $6.6 billion in 2008.

“We predicted residential sales of 15,550 this year and exceeded it in early October,” said Ponde. “We anticipated that single family prices would end the year at $352,000 and condos would be at $222,500. We are pleased that the year ended up better than we had anticipated and look forward to the stable market continuing into the next decade.”

Source: REALTORS® Association of Edmonton

Well we may just have seen a reversal of the trend that we have been experiencing over the last few weeks where we saw the listings to sales ratio rise to a more neutral market.

As of this moring there are 1,500 single family dwellings in Edmonton proper listed on MLS.  That is a significant drop from last week in which we had 1,649 homes listed on MLS.

Also as of this morning there were 568 sales of single family dwellings in Edmonton proper that were listed on MLS.  That is an increas from last week’s number of 494.

This would give us a listing to sales ration of 2.64:1 down from last week’s ratio of 3.33:1.  Last week’s ratio was indicating that we were arriving to a neutral and balanced market.  But with this week’s number dropping to 2.64:1 that will put upward pressure on valuations.’

The next 4 weeks will be interesting to watch as historically is our slowest time of the year.

 People walk past new homes that are for sale in Oakville, Ont. New house prices went up for the fourth straight month in October but are still down from last year, Statistics Canada said Friday.

New house prices higher in October

Statistics Canada says housing prices were on the rise in October.

The agency’s New Housing Price Index rose 0.3 per cent in October, its fourth straight monthly increase. The index rose by 0.5 per cent in September.

Prices increased the most in Quebec City, where they were up 1.1 per cent, followed by Vancouver, at 0.7 per cent. Hamilton, Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ont., all registered 0.5 per cent increases.

Prices went up in Quebec City in part due to a scarcity of land and increased building costs, the agency noted.

Two cities recorded monthly decreases in new housing prices – Charlottetown, with a 0.7 per cent drop, and Edmonton, at 0.3. In both cities, prices were lower because builders slashed prices to remain competitive, the agency said.

Year over year, the index was down 2.1 per cent in October following a 2.7 per cent decline in September. The largest decreases continue to be in the west, Statistics Canada said.

CBC News

A new report will be greeted as a good news/bad news proposition for Canadians, depending on which side of the home ownership fence they currently reside. Good news for home owners, who can expect housing values to end 2009 at an average of $318,000, up five per cent from 2008; and bad news for those still waiting to break into the market, as prices are expected to rise another 2 per cent by the end of 2010 – the highest level in Canadian history. Where are home prices headed across the country? Click to find out.

Canada
Average price in 2007: $307,265
Average price in 2008: $303,594
Average price in 2009: $318,000
Change in ’09: +5%
Average price in 2010: $325,000
Change in ’10: +2%
Source: CREA, Local real estate boards, RE/MAX

Edmonton

Average price in 2007: $338,636
Average price in 2008: $332,852
Average price in 2009: $321,000
Change in ’09: -4%
Average price in 2010: $330,000
Change in ’10: +3%
Source: CREA, Local real estate boards, RE/MAX

Well it appears that the seasonal slow down in starting to hit us here in the Edmonton marketplace.  The number of single family dwellings in Edmonton proper listed dropped significantly from last week from 1,762 to 1,649.  That is a 6.4% drop in one week and that is very significant.

The number of sales also drop significantly in the last week from 545 to 494 in the past 30 days.  That is a 9.4% drop in sales volume.  Again the trend that is of concern to me is that the number of sales are dropping faster and by a greater amount then the number of listings.

What does that mean?  Well it means that our listing/sales ratio his risen from 3.27:1 to 3.33:1, which means that I am concerned that valuations could drop if the trend continues.

Edmonton, December 2, 2009: Total sales through the Edmonton and area Multiple Listing Service® system to the end of November have surpassed total year end sales in 2008. The total value of all types of property sold to the end of November is $6.64 billion. The same figure at the end of December 2008 was $6.42 billion. There have been 20,355 property sales so far as compared to 19,448 at year-end 2008.

“Both sales and the value of sales have exceeded our expectations this year,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “We anticipated sales levels would be the same as last year but REALTORS® have already sold more property than last year with a month to go. This is a good indicator of the strength of our local market.”

In November, the average price of a single family dwelling went up 1.2% to $368,018, reversing a 2% drop in the previous month. Single family dwelling prices are 1.5% higher than the same month last year.

Although condominium prices are down 2.5% from last month they are just $50 higher than condo prices a year ago. The average price for a condo in November 2009 was $231,684. At $284,849, the duplex and rowhouse prices were down 4.7% from last month and down 9.5% from a year ago. Overall, the all-residential average price is down marginally from October and the previous November. It sits at $318,482.

There were 1,894 homes listed on the MLS® System in November with 1,261 sales for a sales-to-listing ratio of 67%. The total value of residential sales in November was $402 million and total available inventory was 5,226 homes which is a typical four month supply. Homes sold on average in 48 days which is up one from last month but much brighter than the 63 days it took to sell a home in November 2008.

“The market remains rock steady,” said Ponde. “Prices vary from month to month within a small range and with a slow gradual upward trend. Buyers have confidence in this market and REALTORS® are prepared to match their needs with the perfect housing option.”

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Highlights of MLS® System activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.