Source: Lee Politano, Mortgage Specialist (780) 264-1749    TD Bank Financial Group

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

>>To view the full report click here<<

Source: Lee Politano, Mortgage Specialist (780) 264-1749    TD Bank Financial Group

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

• Minutes of the FOMC reveal that the Fed has upgraded its economic growth forecasts. The central bank now expects a contraction of -1.5% to -1.0% in 2009 and growth of 2.1% to 3.3 in 2010%.
• U.S. retail sales recorded a better-than-expected +0.6% in June, led by auto and gasoline sales.
• Housing starts in the U.S. jumped up to 582,000 in June, marking the second straight month of gains.
• U.S. headline CPI advanced 0.7% in June, but remain down 1.4% Y/Y; core inflation was up 0.2% on the month and 1.7% above year-ago levels.
• Federal deficit hit $1.1 trillion during the first nine months of the fiscal year beginning in October.
• Canadian manufacturing sector continues to reel from outside pressures as the downward spiral in manufacturing shipments continued with a 6.0% decline in May
• The domestic economy looks set to recover as both auto and home sales improve.

>>To view the full report click here<<

New in Canada’s Economic Action Plan

Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the federal government will introduce a First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit (HBTC) to help with the purchase of a first home. This measure is expected to cost $30 million in 2008-2009, $175 million in 2009-2010 and $180 million in 2010-2011. 

About the Initiative

The HBTC will assist first-time homebuyers with the costs associated with the purchase of a home, such as legal fees, disbursements and land transfer taxes, which are a particular burden for first-time homebuyers, who must also save for a down payment.

The $5,000 non-refundable HBTC amount will apply to qualifying homes acquired after January 27, 2009, and will provide up to $750 in federal tax relief.

A qualifying home is generally considered to be a housing unit located in Canada that the individual or individual’s spouse or common-law partner intends to occupy as the principal place of residence no later than one year after its acquisition.

Any unused portion of an individual’s HBTC may be claimed by the individual’s spouse or common-law partner. When two or more eligible individuals jointly purchase a home, the credit may be shared but the total credit amount claimed cannot exceed $5,000.

How It Works

First-time homebuyers purchasing a home will be able to claim the HBTC on their income tax returns, starting in 2009. Claimants should ensure that documentation supporting the purchase transaction is available if requested by the Canada Revenue Agency. Claimants are also responsible for making sure that all applicable eligibility conditions are met. 

Who Is Eligible

First-time homebuyers are eligible. An individual is considered a first-time homebuyer if neither the individual nor the individual’s spouse or common-law partner owned and lived in another home in the year of the home purchase or in any of the four preceding calendar years. Special rules apply for the purchase of homes that are more accessible or better suited to the personal needs and care of an individual who is eligible for the Disability Tax Credit. In these situations, the HBTC can be claimed, even if the first-time homebuyer requirement is not met. 

How to Find Out More

For more information, please visit the Department of Finance Canada website or the Canada Revenue Agency website.

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At the mid-point of the year, the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is confident that the local real estate market has regained stability. The 9,741 sales of residential properties sold through the Multiple Listing Service® in the first six months surpassed the six month year-to-date figure for last year (9,567) and residential sales in June set a new record for the month. Residential sales in June totalled 2,552 units which surpassed the 2007 record of 2,203 units sold and was the third best month for unit sales in MLS® System history.  

“Buyer confidence, especially among first time buyers, was evident in Edmonton despite lingering economic concerns in other markets,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “When mortgage rates looked like they might start to rise, many potential buyers locked in lower mortgage rates and then went searching for a qualifying home.”

Listing activity slowed slightly from last month (down 0.03%) with 3,179 residential listings. The strong sales drove the sales to listing ratio to 80% from 68% last month. Prices continue to climb with one month increases of 0.6% for single family dwellings and 1% increases for condominiums. The average* SFD sold for $369,859 in June as compared to $367,672 in May or $351,870 on January 1. Condominiums sold for $247,071 on average in June; up from $244,734 in May and $234,286 at the start of the year. At the end of 2008 Q2, SFDs sold for $381,384 and condos sold for $262,365.

“Last year prices fell from the high point in March. This year prices have just continued to climb,” said Ponde. “Prices typically decline slightly in the second half of the year but the drop, if it occurs, will not be precipitous.”

The average days on market was 60 days or more early in the year but dropped to 49 in June; another indicator of buyer enthusiasm. At the end of June there were 6,785 residential properties active on the MLS® System (2.65 month supply at current sales volumes) which offers a wide range of choice for those eager buyers.

Highlights of MLS® activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.

Source: The Realtors Association of Edmonton

The Edmonton real estate market continues to improve.  Currently there are 2,017 single family homes listed on MLS in Edmonton proper.  That is a drop from last week and is supporting the fact that there is a shortage of good quality listings.

In the past 30 days there were 884 sales.  Not the 1,000 sales that I would be looking for to happen in a normal market but with current inventory level is still a good number.

With those numbers that gives us a listing to sales ratio of 2.28:1.  Again a drop in the listing to sales ratio indicating that we are going to see continued upward pressure on valuations.

Buyers beware waiting to buy, and get into the market before prices go up any further.

Well you can’t say that I didn’t warn you.  The value of homes in Edmonton are on the rise, specially in the lower prices ranges.

As of this morning there were 2,337 single family homes listed as active in Edmonton proper.  In the previous 30 days there were 943 single family homes sold.  That would give us a listing to sales ratio of 2.48:1, which again is a lower ratio than the previous week. ( ratios taken on Monday morning have a tendency of being a little higer than those taken of Fridays.  Reason being with realtors now loading new listings into the system manually themselves can do so over the weekend but the sales that have occured over the weekend are not processed untill the business week.)

What that indicates to me is that if this trend continues the valuation recovery may happen quicker and be more pronounced than I originally had forcasted.

Should we be surprised??

Wow it is amazing how quickly the market can change.  Maybe we should not be so surprised, as I was astounded at how quickly the market changed back in May/June 2007.

In the recent weeks in working with buyers for homes under $350,000 it has been a real challenge.  If they were nice homes and priced well they were either sold or by the time we had a chance to write up an offer we were competing with other offers.  As usual, with multiple offers the homes end up selling for more than they were asking for originally.

At the time of my writing this article (June 03, 2009) in Edmonton proper there are 2,289 single family homes listed for sale.  In the past 30 days there has been 1,028 single family sold in Edmonton proper.  That would give us a listing to sales ratio of 2.23:1. 

In the last several weeks that ratio has dropped even further every week and is well below the 4:1 ratio we need in Edmonton for a balanced market.  So there is no doubt in my mind that valuations are rising and they are rising at a rate much higher than the average selling price is rising.  Remember there is a big difference between average selling price and valuations.

Average selling price reflects what the average individual is willing and capable of paying for a home.  Most people go to their bank or mortgage broker and find out how much of a mortgage they can qualify for and that is what they go out and buy.

However, valuation is a reflection of what you are getting for that dollar and that is what is really changing.  If you are thinking of buying and waiting then you are going to end up with a lesser home for the same amount of money.  So you better act now before prices go up higher. 

This is even more important for someone who is thinking of upgrading to a bigger or more expensive home.  Think of it this way: Your home is worth $300,000 and the home you are going to buy is worth $500,000.  Valuations rise by 10% which would mean your home went up $30,000 in value.  This sounds appealing but the home you were going to buy has now gone up $50,000.  Waiting ultimately cost you $20,000 on your mortgage.

Also it should be noted that right now the greatest increases in valuations are homes under the $350,000 price range as it represents 56.81% of all the single family homes sold.  The second highest group is the $350,000 – $450,000 price range representing 26.07% of the single family homes sold.  And finally the over $450,000 price range representing 18.68 %

Even though at the moment the greatest increases are the homes under $350K, we will soon see the valuations of the higher price ranges start to increase as the sellers of these homes under $350K are now in the market in the higher price ranges. 

For those of you who have been following my blog (http://Blog.FindMyHouse.ca) you should not be surprised at what is currently happening, as I have been forecasting this for weeks!

Ultimately what I am saying is stop waiting for the bottom as it’s already come and gone,  and get out and buy now.

And that is my two cents… Serge

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton reports that the number of residential properties sold through the Multiple Listing Service® in Edmonton in May was up over 17% as compared to the previous month and up 18.7% over the same month last year. There were 3,180 residential properties listed with sales of 2,161. The sales-to-listing ratio was 68% as compared to 42% in May 2008.

“Sales continue to rise month-by-month,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Listing activity, while not as frantic as last year, is still active so there continues to be a good supply and variety of homes available.”  

Prices in the local market also continued their slow, steady climb. Single family homes sold on average* for $367,672 in May; up 4% from last month but still 4% lower than a year ago. Condominiums sold for $244,734 on average which was 3.7% higher than April prices. Condos are still priced 6% lower than last year at this time. The average residential price was $326,332 up 4.6% from last month but down 4.2% from a year ago.

“Prices are still lower than last year but rising steadily,” said Ponde. “So house hunters should be making their buying decisions sooner rather than later to ensure that their buying power is not eroded by the rising prices.” He noted that some REALTORS® have been able to present multiple offers to their sellers.

At the end of May there were 7,435 homes available in the MLS® System inventory and homes sold, on average, in 52 days (as compared to 51 last month and 53 last May). At 3.4 months, there is a typical amount of inventory available at current sales volumes. Total MLS® System sales in May were 2,395 properties valued at $787 million. Year to date sales are valued at $2.5 billion. 

Highlights of MLS® activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.

Source: Realtors Association of Edmonton

MLS® Activity for April 2009

Source: Realtors Association of Edmonton