Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

June 2015 Edmonton Real Estate Market Update

Monday, June 22nd, 2015

Lately, it’s been all bad news that has been aired on TV and published on the internet. Well, today, we’d like for you to break out of that chain of bad news.

Serge Bourgoin, Team Leading Edge Senior Partner brings forth news for all to hear. Whether your buying or selling an Edmonton home, this report will surely turn that frown upside down!

Remember to subscribe to our blog and Youtube channel and check out all the freshly listed Homes For Sale in Edmonton via our new Edmonton MLS Listings.

 

Homes For Sale Edmonton

Oil Prices Down, Alberta Economy Looks Up. Here’s Why

Friday, February 20th, 2015

Edmonton Alberta real estate

There is a considerable measure of media and savant buzz about Al­berta being in earnest straits because of the drop in oil costs. However, in 2009, oil costs tumbled to US$50 a barrel and we heard the same figures then. Also take a gander at Alberta now.

 

Each area ought to have these issues.

 

Alberta created a large portion of the occupations in Canada a year ago, has close full job and the most astounding earnings in the nation.

 

The territory has estimate an overflow of almost $1billion in 2014-15, while direct oil sovereignties represent just 18 every penny of Alberta’s incomes, as indicated by the prov- incal government.

 

In the event that Alberta were its own nation, it would rank No. 3 on the planet in the matter of the Human Development Index, an United Na­tions worldwide measure of pay, training and future, as per the Center for the Study of Living Standards.

 

With only 4.1 million inhabitants, Alberta has a terrible local result of $84,390 every capita, third most astounding on the planet, in light of rankings from the International Monetary Fund.

 

The territory has the second­ most reduced unemployment rate in Canada and the most noteworthy wages, at more than $1,100 every week.

 

And the third-biggest pet­roleum holds on the planet, Alberta has one of the world’s most gainful agrarian parts, with more than 50 million sections of land under harvests and animals.

 

Normal yearly venture every capita is $27,617 in Alberta, more than twofold the Canadian normal and characteristic of the area’s startup, heads-up, non-stop state of mind.

 

Today, just 2 every penny of Al­berta’s demonstrated oil stores are being mined and it will keep on delivering oil for a vitality hungry world for quite a long time, maybe cen­turies, to come.

 

A late study from the Canadian Energy Research Institute estimates Alberta oilsands creation will achieve 3.7 million barrels a day by 2020 and 5.2 in 2013.

 

Yet Alberta is a great deal more than oil.

 

This is a broadened economy where fund, land and development create as much as the oil and gas industry.

 

In modern land, as only one measure, Calgary and Edmonton make up 33% of all the new development in the nation.

 

Alberta overflows with opportun­ities, and its huge hearted, low-assessment welcome guarantees it will remain a destination of decision for speculators and business visionaries from Canada and around the globe.

Check out the available homes for sale in all of Edmonton and its neighboring areas on our new and improved Edmonton MLS listings. 

Alberta is heading for a Real Estate Boom

Thursday, March 27th, 2014

real estate boom

I’m excited about some news and I wanted to share it with you! For those who own a home already or looking to buy soon, I’m happy to say Alberta and Edmonton is heading for another boom.

If you are THINKING about buying a home or rental property… NOW is the time. I don’t need a crystal ball to know what’s brewing. Just take a look around and read the news articles.  If you don’t trust the columnists/reporters just visit the Alberta Treasury Board and Finance website. A heading for their article is “ Alberta’s economy enters 2014 firing on all cylinder.” What does this all boil down to? Well, the components to create a perfect storm are aligning and the end result will be a new boom in Alberta!  Here are the components we are experiencing:

1)  The dollar is devalued… This means oil is produced in Alberta and paid with Canadian dollars. When sold in the higher U.S. dollars, this is a hike in profit for the oil producers.
2)  Job growth and full employment. Developers out east are viewing Alberta as favorable place to set up shop. We have projects that are delayed simply due to lack of qualified workers. So, not only will Alberta attract people from outside of province, but also out of country.
3)  Net migration into Alberta last year is 43,000 according to Robert Kalcic, Senior Economist with BMO Capital Market. This year that number will be higher.
4)  Low volume of homes sales. Many, we see now have multiple offers.
5)  Close to all time historic low interests

So, let’s add all of that up: low volume of homes, high demand = higher prices or higher rents…The Perfect Storm. So, if you missed the boat, or were too young during the last boom you may want to act now. Dorothy, hold onto your slippers we’re in for a ride!

What an exciting time to be in Alberta! Give me a call to discuss your financing options.

Here are links to the news articles and data that I’ve extracted my information from:

http://www2.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/business/story.html?id=ab10cab1-c242-44f4-99db-bf23a39ac9c4

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/03/14/hicks-on-biz-a-boom-is-happening

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/alberta-housing-market-set-to-
surge-bmo/article17493280/

http://globalnews.ca/news/1220698/migration-to-alberta-is-exploding/

http://www.finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/economic-trends/current-economic-trends.pdf

Written by Chita Metcalf – Contact her today to get yourself pre-approved for a new mortgage.

The Mortgage Group

Phone: 780-932-2225

Website: www.EdmontonMortgageSource.com

Edmonton is job central in Canada

Tuesday, December 10th, 2013

today

EDMONTON – Just how hot is the Edmonton region’s jobs juggernaut?

Well, consider this: “Over the past year, fully one of every 10 new jobs created in Canada has been created in the metro Edmonton region,” says John Rose, the City’s chief economist. “That’s truly remarkable.”

With a population of 1.2 million people, this region accounts for just 3.4 per cent of Canada’s 35 million residents. Yet it generated new jobs at a pace on par with a region of 3.5 million people, roughly the size of greater Montreal.

The latest monthly jobs figures, issued Friday by Statistics Canada, show the Edmonton region gained 3,000 new jobs in November, reversing a decline of the same magnitude in October.

Over the past year, the region has gained nearly 18,000 new full-time jobs. Alberta created 78,100 new jobs, accounting for nearly 44 per cent of Canada’s total employment gains.

Although the local unemployment rate ticked up — to 5.1 per cent in November from 4.2 per cent a year earlier, due to a big surge of newcomers — it’s still among the lowest in Canada. Alberta’s jobless rate sits at 4.7 per cent, second lowest behind Saskatchewan’s 4.1 per cent rate.

“We’ve had absolutely remarkable employment growth in the Edmonton area over the course of 2012 and 2013,” says Rose, who was on hand Thursday for the Economics Society of Northern Alberta’s (ESNA’s) 2014 outlook conference.

“We’ve seen a very significant run-up in full-time employment, and that has more than made up for the fact that part-time employment has been falling. Quite frankly, I wasn’t feeling too optimistic about November, because we’d had such strong growth. But to see growth return after the dip in October is excellent.”

It’s not just the pace of employment growth that has Rose excited. It’s also the key factors that are driving it, and what that’s likely to mean for the year ahead.

“The gains in full-time employment and the significant run-up in incomes is beginning to feed through to the consumer side of the economy. So we’re seeing employment growth beginning to pivot away from manufacturing, construction and professional services to sectors like retail, personal services and education. There is such momentum now that we can be very confident growth will continue in 2014.”

Rose expects GDP growth of just under four per cent for the Edmonton region next year, and between three and 3.5 per cent for the city proper, which is more heavily reliant on the steady-as-she-goes government, health and education sectors.

That’s light years above the anemic growth rates for Canada as a whole. The Bank of Canada expects national GDP growth of just 2.3 per cent for 2014, while Stefane Marion, National Bank of Canada’s chief economist, is calling for growth of just 2.2 per cent next year.

Alberta’s economic engine shows no signs of sputtering. Despite the usual angst over oil prices, pipeline bottlenecks and project cost overruns, the province remains Canada’s economic star.

“We don’t have the final GDP numbers for 2013 yet but we’re probably tracking real GDP growth at 2.8 per cent or maybe three per cent, and I actually see that picking up a little bit to maybe 3.5 per cent in 2014,” said Todd Hirsch, ATB Financial’s chief economist, who was among the headline speakers at the ESNA conference.

Although no one expects oil prices to soar — both Marion and Hirsch say the price of West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark U.S. grade of light crude, will likely trade between a low of about $85 US and a high of $100 US a barrel in 2014 — the weaker loonie is expected to boost cash flows and keep drilling programs and oilsands projects on track.

At the same time, manufacturing — a key sector in the Edmonton region’s economy — is expected to pick up, particularly if one or more of the proposed new oil pipelines finally gain some traction. But if they don’t, Rose warns that the current upbeat outlook for the provincial economy could change quickly.

“If we don’t get some good news on one or more of the four major pipeline proposals that are out there, I think you’ll see a very soft and squishy 2015 for sure, and it would raise question marks in terms of our growth profile as a province over the next five to six years.”

Although Canadians will go to the polls in 2015 — giving the Harper government a strong incentive to achieve some progress on its energy infrastructure agenda — Rose is skeptical that the Obama government will okay the proposed Keystone XL pipeline to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

“The really bad news is that we’ve got mid-term elections in the U.S. next year, so my concern is that politicians in the U.S. are going to punt decisions on Keystone XL beyond the elections, because they may perceive it as a no-win situation from an electoral point of view. If so, that would be unfortunate to say the least.”

 

Source: EdmontonJournal.com

IMF sees Bank of Canada hiking rates in second-half 2014

Wednesday, October 9th, 2013

today

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund expects Canada’s economy to grow slightly more than 1.5 percent this year and 2.25 percent next year while it sees the Bank of Canada refraining from interest rate hikes until the second half of 2014.

In its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the Washington-based lender’s forecasts for Canada were slightly lower than the central bank’s projections in July of 1.8 percent and 2.7 percent growth in 2013 and 2014, respectively.

However, Canada’s central bank is due to update its outlook on October 23 and Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem made clear last week the numbers will be downgraded after he sharply cut the forecast for third-quarter growth in a speech.

The IMF linked Canada’s growth prospects directly to the U.S. recovery, which it says will strengthen exports and business investment as domestic consumption cools. The forecasts assume the U.S. government shutdown is short-lived and the U.S. debt ceiling is raised promptly.

“The balance of risks to Canada’s outlook is still tilted to the downside, emanating from potentially weaker external demand,” the report said.

The accommodative monetary policy in place in Canada since the 2008-09 recession remains “appropriate,” the Fund said, predicting gradual tightening to start in late 2014 from the current 1.0 percent rate. Analysts in a Reuters poll forecast a first rate hike in the fourth quarter of next year.

Canada’s record-high household debt earned it a mild warning from the IMF, which said the trend could amplify any shock to the economy.

It also identified big provincial budget deficits and debt as a vulnerability, without naming specific governments.

(Reporting by Louise Egan; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Source: Money.ca.MSN.com

Bank of Canada slashes third-quarter growth forecast, wary on exports

Thursday, October 3rd, 2013

today

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada on Tuesday sharply cut its growth forecast for the third quarter of 2013 and said the crucial export sector might pick up speed slower than initially expected.

Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank expected annualized growth in the third and fourth quarters to be in the 2 to 2.5 percent range before strengthening next year. In its monetary policy report released in July, the bank said third quarter growth would be 3.8 percent and fourth quarter growth would be 2.5 percent.

Macklem told a Toronto audience that a predicted switch in demand toward exports and business investment – important to help ensure a healthier economic growth rate and reduce reliance on consumer spending – had proved elusive.

“There is a risk that this rotation is delayed further,” he said in the prepared text of his speech.

The Bank has kept its key interest rate unchanged at a near record low 1 percent since September 2010 and Macklem gave no hints of a hike in the near future.

“With inflation subdued, monetary policy remains highly stimulative to provide time for the recovery in exports and investment to take hold,” Macklem said.

He said growth of at least 2.5 percent was needed to absorb the current slack in the economy. The bank expected household and government spending combined to contribute about 1.5 percentage points of growth.

To reach the required 2.5 percent growth, net exports and investment would need to contribute at least 1 percentage point. That implies combined growth of exports and investment of about 4 percent. In the last year net exports and investment in fact contributed nothing to growth, he noted.

(Reporting by David Ljunggren, editing by Louise Egan)

Source: MSN Money

Canadian Consumer Confidence at Highest Since 2011

Wednesday, October 2nd, 2013

today

Canadian consumer sentiment climbed to the highest in more than two years as employment rose and the housing market remained buoyant, according to the new Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index.

The index, a weekly measurement of the economic mood of Canadians, rose to 59.75 in the period ended Sept. 27, from 59.23 the previous week. That’s the highest since March 2011 for the index, which tracks consumers’ perceptions of the strength of the economy, job security, real estate and their financial situation.

“September remains above average in terms of positive consumer sentiment in Canada,” said Nik Nanos, chairman of Nanos Research Group, the Ottawa-based polling company.

The data reflect recent improvement in economic reports. Job security among Canadians rose this month after Statistics Canada reported Sept. 6 that the economy added 59,200 jobs in August, the second highest total this year. Data this month also have shown the number of Canadians receiving jobless benefits is falling.

“Modest improvements in housing finances and the Canadian labor market are the primary factors for the best reading of the index in over a year,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York.

The index has two sub-indexes: the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Pocketbook Index on personal finances, and the Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Sub-index on future views. The data in the indexes date to 2008 and is based on phone interviews with 1,000 consumers, using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents. The results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points.

Pocketbook Survey

The Pocketbook Index, based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security, rose to 61.37 from 60.55. The difference between the share of Canadians who report their jobs are secure and those saying they’re not secure rose to 59.1 percentage points last week, the most since March 2011.

The expectations index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, rose to 58.13 from 57.91 as more Canadians predicted home prices would rise.

The improvement in attitude comes as the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, a separate gauge of consumer sentiment in the U.S., rose for a third straight week.

Canada’s economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in July, Statistics Canada reported today, with the 0.6 percent advance reversing the prior month’s drop.

The country’s output is poised to accelerate at a 2.1 percent pace from July to September, after slowing to 1.7 percent in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg economist surveys.

Housing Rebound

Concerns that Canada’s housing market will cool rapidly are dissipating. Canadian home sales rose 2.8 percent in August from the previous month, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported Sept. 16. Sales have increased for six consecutive months at an average pace of 2.3 percent, the most since January 2011.

The Bloomberg Nanos gauge of Canadians’ view on real estate strengthened this month, with 38.1 percent polled predicting increased real estate values in their neighborhoods, up from as low as 34.5 percent in August. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed said they are better off financially over the past year, the highest reading since June.

The youngest age groups, and lowest income earners, are showing among the biggest confidence gains, according to the polling results. Consumers in Ontario led gains over the past week for the Bloomberg Nanos index.

Store Sales

Statistics Canada reported last week the nation’s retailers boosted sales in July by 0.6 percent, adding to evidence the nation’s economy is rebounding.

Statistics Canada also reported today that industrial product prices rose 0.2 percent in August, while raw materials prices increased 0.9 percent.

Elsewhere in the economy, Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech tomorrow in Toronto on “Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports.”

Western University in London, Ontario will release its Ivey Purchasing (IVEYSA) Managers Index for August at the end of the week, with economists forecasting a reading of 53.5 from 51 in July.

 

Source: bloomberg.com/news

RISING INTEREST RATES AND YOU… FIXED OR VARIABLE?

Thursday, September 5th, 2013
Over the past few years it seemed every expert was telling us that interest rates would be rising, but after years of record low fixed rates, I think many of us stopped believing the headlines.
With bond prices dropping and yields on the rise, those rates that are tied to bonds have shown dramatic movement over the past month. For the most qualified, the rates on 5-year fixed mortgages have increased from a low of 2.89% to 3.59%, and are potentially still rising.
The term, “jumping on the band-wagon” now comes to mind. We see it most often with professional sports teams, fads, and sometimes even with politicians. It
seems we may be seeing it in the mortgage industry as well. In the past few weeks, there have been number of articles speaking to the virtues of variable-rate mortgages.
 Are variable-rate products quickly becoming the better option?
Remember the days of 5-year adjusted rate mortgages (ARM) priced at PRIME – 75 or even PRIME – 90? If you were fortunate enough to have one of those products and stayed with it over the course of the term you’ve come out a winner. Since the last PRIME – 75 funded approximately four to five years ago, those rates have become extinct and now those of you renewing your mortgages have a choice to make.
Should you renew into a current ARM product at PRIME – 40(ish)or take the security of a fixed-rate term in the fear that rates will continue to rise?
Economists are predicting the Bank of Canada will hold the overnight rate steady into 2014. That said, take these predictions with a grain of salt as many of those same economists had already called for increases back in 2012 and 2013. Economic conditions change and so do outlooks and forecasts.
Relatively speaking, variable-rate mortgages are cheaper today at PRIME (3%) – 40 than they were five years ago when they were at PRIME (4.75%) – 75.  The spread between fixed rates and variable rates is sometimes referred to as the “rate premium” or even “fixed rate insurance” and is a good evaluator of the attractiveness between fixed and variable.
This time, five years ago, that spread was approximately 150 basis points (5-yr. fixed rates averaged 5.50%). Today that spread is around 100 basis points. If that spread grows, variable-rate mortgages will again become more attractive compared to their fixed-rate counterparts.
Before making any final decisions keep in mind two last items. First, in late 2008 both fixed rates and PRIME were dropping. Today, PRIME is remaining flat for the time being while fixed rates are rising.  Second, credit and lending guidelines have changed significantly in the past five years.
Today’s borrowers are better qualified and have fewer opportunities to defer interest costs using extended amortization and lower down payment options.  Those who are willing to take the additional risks of variable products are better equipped to do so than those in the past even though the risk premium is effectively higher than it was five years ago.
That said, our rate environment today compared to August 2008 is quite different since both variable and fixed rates do not seem to be dropping. To really understand the best option, it’s best to discuss these factors with your dedicated mortgage broker. I will review the various products available and can help you select the best one that fits lifestyle and financial goals.
In the end, market volatility breeds uncertainty but it also brings opportunity. This is an ideal time to talk mortgage strategy.  The strategy is vital and is, in many respects, more important than the rate.
It may be time to consider the variable rate or, from a historical context, it may still be a great time to consider locking in to a fixed-rate product.  Either way, I encourage you to you to be proactive and seek out advice.
Don’t hesitate to contact me for any mortgage advice.

 

Best Regards,
 
Chita Rattanarasy
Mortgage Associate
TMG The Mortgage Group Alberta LTD
#10, 156 St.Albert Road, St.Albert, AB, T8N 0P5

To incoming BoC governor: Raise rates

Wednesday, May 15th, 2013

OTTAWA – Incoming Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is already getting advice on what to do once he takes charge next month — start hiking interest rates.

The C.D. Howe Institute says in report authored by economist Paul Masson, a former special adviser to the central bank, that after five years of super-low interest rates, it is time to take the anemic economy off its meds.

He says an extended period of low interest rates is introducing pervasive problems into the economy, such as asset bubbles in housing and risk-taking and inefficient investments.

As well, low interest rates are threatening the sustainability of pension funds and contributing to record high levels of household debt.

Masson notes that other countries also have near zero policy rates, but says Canada is not in the same position as the United States, Japan or Europe.

The economic recession of 2008-09 didn’t hit Canada as hard, he says, and with gross domestic product near the economy’s capacity, the current one-per-cent policy rate no longer is justified.

Raising rates may increase the value of the Canadian currency and set back exports, Masson concedes, but adds that with the U.S. economy in recovery mode and the dollar already below parity, the manufacturing sector can cope with a modestly stronger loonie.

 

Source: MSN Money

What’s Your Credit Score?

Tuesday, April 16th, 2013

A good credit report and credit score are important factors in determining whether or not you will be approved for a mortgage. Here are some simple steps you can take to maintain a good credit history and improve your chances of being approved.

What is a Credit Score

Your credit score is a number that illustrates your financial health at a specific point in time. It also serves as an indicator of your financial past, and how consistently you pay off your bills and debts. This is one of the factors mortgage professionals consider in qualifying you for a mortgage.

How to Check Your Credit Score

To find out your credit score, contact Canada’s two credit-reporting agencies: Equifax Canada at www.equifax.ca and TransUnion Canada at www.transunion.ca.

For a fee, these agencies will provide you with an online copy of your credit score as well as a credit report – a detailed summary of your credit history, employment history and personal financial information on file. You can also obtain a free copy of your credit report by mail. If you find any errors in your report, notify the credit-reporting agency and the organization responsible for the inaccuracy immediately.

If You Do Not Have a Credit Score

It’s important to begin building a credit history as early as possible. You can begin to build one by applying for – and responsibly using – a credit card. Your financial institution or mortgage professional can help.

How to Improve Your Credit Score

Demonstrating your ability to manage credit is key to maintaining a good credit score. There are a number of things you can do to improve your credit score.

These include:

  • Always pay your bills in full and on time. If you cannot pay the full amount, try to pay at least the required minimum shown on your monthly statement.
  • Pay off your debts (such as loans, credit cards, lines of credit, etc.) as quickly as possible.
  • Never go over the limit on your credit cards, and try to keep your balances well below the limits.
  • Reduce the number of credit card or loan applications you make.

Once your credit score has improved, work with your mortgage professional to obtain a mortgage that works for you.

Find Out More

To find out more about credit scores and reports, visit the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada website at http://www.fcac-acfc.gc.ca and download or request a free copy of their guide, Understanding Your Credit Report and Credit Score. This guide provides practical, straightforward information on how to obtain and understand your credit report and score, as well as how to build and maintain a good credit.

Chita Rattanarasy
Mortgage Associate
TMG The Mortgage Group Alberta LTD
780-932-2225

 

Source: CMHC Resource

 

The data included on this website is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. The trademarks REALTOR®, REALTORS® and the REALTOR® logo are controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.