The Canadian housing market is getting dangerously close to “bubble territory” and is likely headed for a correction in the second half of 2010, according to a top economist.

“We are certainly at risk of a full-blown bubble,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns deputy chief economist Doug Porter, who expects to see a “modest” market correction next year with prices taking a hit.

The extent of the correction depends on how much prices increase in the next six months, he said. After dropping at the start of the year, resale house prices have surpassed the peaks of the past year. Research by the bank to be released Wednesday says housing valuations are likely “richer than equity valuations” in the current market.

“The higher we climb, the bigger the risk of a correction,” Porter said.

He said characteristics of a bubble economy include speculative buying, a massive amount of credit on the market, and sales and prices of homes “going north without the economy tagging along.”

Cities such as Vancouver and Toronto, which have had significant activity, stand the most risk of a correction, he said. “You are seeing a lot of line ups at sales centres and speculative buying in those cities.”

Existing home sales rose for the third straight month in November, up 73 per cent from 2008, according to figures released Tuesday.

A total of 36,383 homes sold in November, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. That figure is just under a percentage point short of equalling the November record for home sales set at the peak of 2007. The average price of a home was up 20 per cent year over year to $368,665.

In Toronto, sales hit 7,466, about double the total from last November, when the financial crisis set in.

The volatility means homebuyers continue to be nervous about the economy, according to a poll released Tuesday by Royal LePage of their 1,225 agents across Canada.

“This kind of unsustainable volatile market really creates uncertainty in people’s minds,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.

According to the poll, 38 per cent of Royal LePage agents say economic factors such as job security are the number one issue with buyers. Another 23 per cent said their clients fear they wouldn’t be able to get the price they wanted for their home, and 12 per cent said some customers are hesitant to sell because the market had not hit bottom. About 20 per cent said they had no concerns from clients.

Soper says that unlike the U.S., rapid price rises have been “a matter of weeks” during the second half of the year, compared with south of the border, where the bubble developed over more than four years.

“The market has a way of sorting through things and we hope it’s in a measured way. As affordability erodes one thing you will see is that more people won’t qualify for lending and activity will ease off,” said Soper.

Some good news for buyers is that the return of strong demand means that more sellers are returning to the market. Seasonally adjusted new listings rose 5 per cent on a month over month basis in November, the biggest monthly increase since January of last year.

Tony Wong
BUSINESS REPORTER

EDMONTON – More houses and condos will be built, more existing homes sold and it will be a little harder to find an apartment to rent next year.

And existing homes and rents are expected to cost more in 2010, a comprehensive new report on Edmonton’s housing market said Monday.

This strong rebound predicted for 2010 comes after housing starts in the Edmonton area hit bottom this year — the third straight year of decline, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday.

Builders are on pace to begin construction on 5,000 homes, 24 per cent fewer than the year before, said the national housing agency’s Fall 2009 Housing Market Outlook for the Edmonton census metropolitan area.

It is the lowest level of activity for the region’s homebuilders since 1997, said the report, and follows a 56-per-cent decline in total housing starts in 2008.

“While single-detached construction has staged a modest recovery since the summer, a continued downturn in the multi-family sector will hold down this year’s numbers,” the report said.

For 2010, the agency expects continued growth in single-family detached homes and a moderate rebound in multiples, boosting total starts by 29 per cent to 6,450 units. While that would be a considerable improvement over this year, it compares with an average of more than 10,600 units started every year from 1999 to 2008.

For 2009, a new single-detached home in Edmonton will be an average of $535,000, up 4.5 per cent over 2008.

Still, the CMHC predicts the average price will soften in 2010 by 2.8 per cent to$520,000 because of a “lagged effect” of when homes are priced and when they are completed.

On the other hand, the agency forecasts pressure for higher negotiated selling prices in 2010 from builders who had cut their margins over the past year to clear inventory. “With better economic times ahead, land and labour costs as well as material prices such as lumber and concrete are expected to increase.”

In the resale market, the CMHC predicts residential Multiple Listing Service sales will increase this year by eight per cent to 18,750 units. Last year was the slowest for Realtors since 2003, with saw sales falling 15 per cent to 17,369 homes.

“Provided the economy and interest rates perform as expected, CMHC looks for the upward trend to remain in place during 2010,” the agency said. Total MLS sales are forecast to rise another 9.3 per cent to 20,500 homes in 2010, which would approach the level in 2007, which was the second-best year on record.

The average residential MLS price will end 2009 close to $322,000, down 3.3 per cent from the 2008 average.

A balanced market in 2010 is expected to translate into modest price gains all year, with the average resale price rising 3.4 per cent to about $333,000, CMHC said.

Home-ownership costs will likely rise in 2010 as mortgage rates are at rock bottom and prices set to increase, the agency added.

In rentals, apartment vacancy rates across Greater Edmonton will continue to trend up this year. “But landlords should see a turnaround in 2010, provided economic conditions improve,” the report said.

The vacancy rate for October was an estimated four per cent, compared to 2.4 per cent a year earlier. It was the highest fall vacancy rate since 2005.

Factors in dampening demand for rental apartments were rising unemployment, more demand for home ownership and a steady influx of condominium units.

The agency sees the rental vacancy rate falling to 3.5 per cent amid fewer new apartments and strengthening demand.

CMHC expects its fall survey to show rents largely unchanged from October 2008. “With vacancy rates starting to subside in 2010, property owners will be looking to raise rents to offset rising operating costs, in particular utilities and property taxes,” the report said.

A typical two-bedroom apartment will rent for nearly $1,070 by October 2010, up about $35 a month on average compared with October 2009.

By Bill Mah, edmontonjournal.com

 People walk past new homes that are for sale in Oakville, Ont. New house prices went up for the fourth straight month in October but are still down from last year, Statistics Canada said Friday.

New house prices higher in October

Statistics Canada says housing prices were on the rise in October.

The agency’s New Housing Price Index rose 0.3 per cent in October, its fourth straight monthly increase. The index rose by 0.5 per cent in September.

Prices increased the most in Quebec City, where they were up 1.1 per cent, followed by Vancouver, at 0.7 per cent. Hamilton, Sudbury and Thunder Bay, Ont., all registered 0.5 per cent increases.

Prices went up in Quebec City in part due to a scarcity of land and increased building costs, the agency noted.

Two cities recorded monthly decreases in new housing prices – Charlottetown, with a 0.7 per cent drop, and Edmonton, at 0.3. In both cities, prices were lower because builders slashed prices to remain competitive, the agency said.

Year over year, the index was down 2.1 per cent in October following a 2.7 per cent decline in September. The largest decreases continue to be in the west, Statistics Canada said.

CBC News

New Home, Previously Owned or Build Your Own?

When thinking about the kind of home you want, the first thing you should consider is whether you want a previously owned home (often called a resale) or a new home. Here are some characteristics that may help you decide:

New Home

• Modern design. A new home has an up-to-date design that takes into account the latest trends, materials and features.
• Personalized choices. You may be able to upgrade or choose certain items such as siding, flooring, cabinets, plumbing and electrical fixtures.
• Up-to-date with the latest codes/standards. The latest building codes, electrical and energy-efficiency standards will be applied.
• Maintenance costs. Lower maintenance costs because everything is new and many items are covered by a warranty. You should still set aside money every year for future maintenance costs.
• Builder warranty. This is a warranty that may be provided by the builder of the home. Be sure to check all the conditions of the warranty. A homebuilder’s warranty can be important if a major system such as plumbing or heating breaks down.
• New Home Warranty programs. Generally new home warranty programs are provided by provincial and territorial governments, but there are private new home warranty programs. These warranty programs are not available in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories. Check with your real estate agent or lawyer/notary to find out what the new home warranty program in your province or territory covers.
• Neighbourhood amenities such as schools, shopping malls and other services may not be complete for years.
• Taxes such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) (or, in certain provinces, the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST)) will apply. However, you may qualify for a rebate of part of the GST or HST on homes that cost less than $450,000. For more information about the GST New Housing Rebate program, visit the Canada Revenue Agency website at www.cra-arc.gc.ca
• Extra costs. You may have to pay extra if you want to add a fireplace, plant trees and sod, or pave your driveway. Make sure you know exactly what’s included in the price of your home.

Resale Home

• You can see what you are buying. Easy access to services. Probably established in a neighbourhood with schools, shopping malls and other services.
• Landscaping is usually done and fencing installed. Previously owned homes may have extras like fireplaces or finished basements or swimming pools.
• No GST/HST. You don’t have to pay the GST/HST unless the house has been renovated substantially, and then the taxes are applied as if it were a new house.
• Possible redecorating and renovations. You may need to redecorate, renovate or do major repairs such as replacing the furnace, roof, windows or doors.

Building Your Own Home

Some people prefer the challenge and flexibility of building their own home. On one hand, you make all the decisions about size, design, location, quality of material, level of energy-efficiency and so on. However, you should expect to invest lots of time and energy.

Article written by: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

According to figures released by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) in May, housing starts in the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) totalled 355 units in April compared with 683 units in April 2008. After four months of activity so far this year, total housing starts have amounted to 1,116 units across Greater Edmonton, down from 2,998 units recorded during January to April of 2008.

Builders poured foundations for 206 single-detached homes in April, representing an increase of almost 16% from the 178 units started in April 2008. “This represents the first year-over-year improvement in single-detached activity since June 2007,” noted Richard Goatcher, CMHC’s Senior Market Analyst based in Edmonton. To the end of April, 607 single-detached homes began construction across Greater Edmonton, down from 835 units during the first four months of 2008.

Multi-family starts, which consist of semi-detached, row and apartment units, remained on a downtrend in April. A 26% year-over-year gain in row starts was offset by continued weakness in new apartment activity. Semi-detached, row and apartment starts totalled 149 units in April, representing a decrease of about 71% from the 505 multiple unit starts in the same month last year. Multiple starts have amounted to 509 units across Metro Edmonton from January through April, down nearly 77% from 2,163 multiple starts tallied in the first four months of 2008.

Housing starts in Alberta’s seven largest cities totalled 794 units in April, representing a decrease of 61% from 2,034 units in April 2008. All seven cities reported year-over-year declines.

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