Edmonton Real Estate Blog

OTTAWA – Canadian home sales jumped 73 per cent in November from a year earlier as the real estate market continued to recover from the economic downturn.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday that 36,383 residential properties were sold last month, with Ontario and Quebec setting sales records for November.

“The current strength of housing demand stands in sharp contrast to weak activity recorded one year ago,” CREA said in its report, adding that activity was just 4/10 of a per cent below the highest level for the month recorded in November 2007.

“National home sales activity last month shows how strongly the housing market has rebounded since the beginning of the year,” said CREA president Dale Ripplinger. “As we predicted last April, the rebound in resale housing activity led the overall Canadian economy out of recession.”

The national residential average price was $337,231 in November, up 19 per cent from a year earlier.

Financial Post

A new report will be greeted as a good news/bad news proposition for Canadians, depending on which side of the home ownership fence they currently reside. Good news for home owners, who can expect housing values to end 2009 at an average of $318,000, up five per cent from 2008; and bad news for those still waiting to break into the market, as prices are expected to rise another 2 per cent by the end of 2010 – the highest level in Canadian history. Where are home prices headed across the country? Click to find out.

Canada
Average price in 2007: $307,265
Average price in 2008: $303,594
Average price in 2009: $318,000
Change in ’09: +5%
Average price in 2010: $325,000
Change in ’10: +2%
Source: CREA, Local real estate boards, RE/MAX

Edmonton

Average price in 2007: $338,636
Average price in 2008: $332,852
Average price in 2009: $321,000
Change in ’09: -4%
Average price in 2010: $330,000
Change in ’10: +3%
Source: CREA, Local real estate boards, RE/MAX

Edmonton’s healthy residential housing market was the first to emerge from the depths of the recession, with sales surpassing year-to-date figures for 2008 in June 2009. Low interest rates, greater affordability, and pent-up demand were behind the push for real estate early in the year, as consumer confidence levels slowly escalated. First-time buyers snapped up entry-level product at significant cost savings. By October, momentum had reached the top-end of the market, with sales over $750,000 moving ahead of 2008 levels. Given the solid percentage increases reported since June, the number of homes sold by year-end is expected to climb to 20,500 units, up 18 per cent over 2008, and on par with 2007 figures. Average price, after peaking in 2007 at $338,636, has since stabilized at $321,000-down just four per cent from 2008 levels. The balanced residential marketplace took both realtors and consumers by surprise in 2009, many of whom hoped for the best but prepared for the worst. However, economic performance, with a 2.8 per cent decline in GDP growth forecast for 2009, has been less than stellar. The energy sector continues to battle back in Alberta-oil prices are on the upswing and forecast to rise further next year. While challenges still lie ahead, some positive industry developments, namely the Kearl oil sands project, are hoped to return to the oil sector to a growth cycle or at least off set recent contraction.

The good news is that real GDP is expected to climb three per cent in Alberta in 2010, bolstered by housing, new construction, a recovering oil and gas sector, and consumer spending. Oil prices are expected to hover around the $80 mark-which should serve to kick-start activity in the mega sand projects. Improving global demand for commodities is forecast to place upward pressure on prices, while rising confidence and more normal crop conditions should also have a positive impact on economic performance in 2010. Retail sales at 5.6 per cent will be one of the top performers in the country, falling just behind British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Unemployment levels hover at approximately 7.1 per cent.

Building on the real estate recovery already underway, the number of homes sold in Edmonton is expected to edge slightly higher in 2010, rising to 21,000, up two per cent over 2009. Housing values, finally on the upswing, should reach an estimated $330,000 by yearend 2010-a three per cent increase over one year earlier. Inventory levels-at about 5,500-are forecast to remain stable, representing a three to four month supply. Market conditions should be balanced throughout much of the year, leaning slightly in favour of the seller. First-time buyers are expected to once again play a significant role, stimulating activity in virtually every segment of the market. It’s anticipated that demand for condominiums will be constant, given their affordable entry-point. An influx of new conversion units in months ahead should be absorbed relatively quickly but fewer multi-unit housing starts in 2010 overall may apply some pressure to the resale market.

Edmonton, December 2, 2009: Total sales through the Edmonton and area Multiple Listing Service® system to the end of November have surpassed total year end sales in 2008. The total value of all types of property sold to the end of November is $6.64 billion. The same figure at the end of December 2008 was $6.42 billion. There have been 20,355 property sales so far as compared to 19,448 at year-end 2008.

“Both sales and the value of sales have exceeded our expectations this year,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “We anticipated sales levels would be the same as last year but REALTORS® have already sold more property than last year with a month to go. This is a good indicator of the strength of our local market.”

In November, the average price of a single family dwelling went up 1.2% to $368,018, reversing a 2% drop in the previous month. Single family dwelling prices are 1.5% higher than the same month last year.

Although condominium prices are down 2.5% from last month they are just $50 higher than condo prices a year ago. The average price for a condo in November 2009 was $231,684. At $284,849, the duplex and rowhouse prices were down 4.7% from last month and down 9.5% from a year ago. Overall, the all-residential average price is down marginally from October and the previous November. It sits at $318,482.

There were 1,894 homes listed on the MLS® System in November with 1,261 sales for a sales-to-listing ratio of 67%. The total value of residential sales in November was $402 million and total available inventory was 5,226 homes which is a typical four month supply. Homes sold on average in 48 days which is up one from last month but much brighter than the 63 days it took to sell a home in November 2008.

“The market remains rock steady,” said Ponde. “Prices vary from month to month within a small range and with a slow gradual upward trend. Buyers have confidence in this market and REALTORS® are prepared to match their needs with the perfect housing option.”

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Highlights of MLS® System activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.

While the newpapers are happy to announce that maybe the recession is over since we had economic growth in the 3rd quarter of this year, things here might be changing.

We also go a report last week that came out that indicated that the number of unemployment claims in Edmonton were rising, which would indicate a slow down for us here in Edmonton.

As of this morning there were 1,762 single family dwellings listed on MLS in Edmonton proper.  That is only a slight decrease over last weeks number1,781.  This would be a seasonal norm and not one that I would be concerned with.

The concerning part is the drop in the sales.  In the last 30 days there were 509 single family dwellings sold in Edmonton proper.  That is a drop from last weeks number of 545, but that also represents almost a 7% drop in sales in one week alone.

You compare that with only a 1% drop in the listing inventory that is a trend of concern.  The listings to sales ratio has also risen to 3.46:1 from last week’s ratio of 3.27:1.  If this trend continues we might see valuations drop slightly before we see them come back again in the spring marketplace.

Gross domestic product sees first gain in a year in Q3, signals recession’s end

OTTAWA – Canada’s real gross domestic product grew 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, the first quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2008 and a signal – if a feeble one – that the recession has ended.

Statistics Canada reported Monday that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, compared with a 2.8 per cent increase for the U.S. economy.

The first overall economic growth in a year marks an end to the recession, which is defined as at least two back-to-back quarters of contraction.

While it is the first indication Canada’s economy is again beginning to grow after begin battered alongside the rest of the world during the economic meltdown that saw the failure of U.S. banks, ravaged corporate profits and lengthened unemployment lines, it is “not exactly a clanging endorsement of the ‘end of recession’ story,” said Douglas Porter, Bank of Montreal’s deputy economist.

“While the quarterly gain for the third quarter was a bit of a damp squib, this doesn’t alter the bigger picture that the Canadian economy is erratically grinding out of recession, led by broad-based gains in domestic spending,” Porter wrote in a note to clients.

“With the solid hand-off from the sturdy September result and mounting signs that the U.S. recovery is taking root, look for much more convincing evidence that the recession is over in fourth-quarter GDP results. Still, the broader picture of a relatively muted recovery remains the dominant theme.”

The agency says final domestic demand advanced 1.2 per cent, as capital investment and personal expenditures both increased.

Real GDP was up 0.4 per cent in September, as most major industrial sectors increased their production.

Final domestic demand was bolstered by a second consecutive quarterly gain in personal expenditures and the first expansion in business capital expenditure since the fourth quarter of 2007.

Export and import volumes both increased after many quarters of decline.

The output of services-producing industries increased 0.6 per cent, with the wholesale and retail trade sectors and real-estate agents and brokers leading the way.

Goods-producing industries slipped 1.4 per cent, continuing a downward trend that started in the third quarter of 2007.

Mining and oil-and-gas extraction contributed the most to the decrease as a result of temporary shutdowns.

Source: THE CANADIAN PRESS, cp.org, Updated: November 30, 2009 9:20 AM

Monthly MLS® home sales activity continues to run strong, with new monthly records set in July, September and October. This has prompted CREA to revise its MLS® home sales forecast for 2009 and 2010.

CREA now forecasts national activity will reach 460,200 units in 2009, up 6.6% from last year. The new sales forecast for 2009 puts activity about on par with annual activity in 2004, but below levels reported for the years 2005 through 2007. Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec and Prince Edward Island are also now forecast to post an annual increase in activity in 2009.

National MLS® home sales activity is forecast to rise 7% to 492,300 units in 2010. This would make 2010 the second highest year on record for sales, putting activity below the peak reached in 2007 and slightly above the 2005 and 2006 figures. The forecast increase in activity for 2010 reflects significant weakness in activity recorded in the first quarter of 2009. Monthly activity in 2010 is expected to trend downward from recent heights, but the sharp drop inactivity recorded in the in the first quarter of 2009 is not expected to repeat in 2010.

The national MLS® average home price is forecast to climb 4.2% in 2009, reaching a record $317,900. This is an upward revision from the 1.5% gain in CREA’s previous forecast and reflects the high degree to which the national average price was skewed downward last year by a significant decline in activity in Canada’s priciest markets, and then upward by the rebound in activity.

Alberta remains the only province with a forecast decline in average price in 2009 (-3.0%). Average prices are forecast to rise in all other provinces, with gains ranging from 1.5% in British Columbia to 13.1% in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Average prices are forecast to climb a further 4.7% in 2010. Much of the annual increase reflects weakness in the average price in first quarter of 2009, which is not expected to repeat in 2010. Average sale prices are forecast to rise in every province in 2010.

Source: CREA

OTTAWA – Canadian home resales improved 41.5 per cent year over year to 42,288 units in October, a record for the month, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The national average price for homes listed on the Multiple Listing Service also reached a new high in October at $341,079. This was 20.7 per cent higher than the same month last year.

* Related: Canada’s hottest housing markets | Coolest markets

New sales records for the month were reported in one-fifth of local markets, including Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS home sales totalled 45,818 units in October, two per cent higher than the previous record set in May 2007 and 74 per cent above the recent low in January.

“Low interest rates and upbeat consumer confidence continue to release the pent-up demand that built late last year and earlier this year,” stated CREA president Dale Ripplinger.

“The release of that pent-up demand has boosted national sales activity to new heights and is drawing down inventories.”

* Tell us: Is Canada experiencing a housing bubble?

The sharp rise in demand for homes has shrunk inventories to 194,994 or a seasonally adjusted 4.1 months worth, the lowest level in more than two years and 20.8 per cent below the peak reached a year ago. This is the sixth month in a row in which inventories are down from year-ago levels.

Seasonally adjusted new listings on MLS were slightly higher in October compared to September at 65,148 units. New listings peaked in May 2008, then declined until March 2009, and have remained relatively steady since then.

“New listings are still expected to rise in the coming months in response to headline average price increases,” stated CREA chief economist Gregory Klump.

“New supply dropped dramatically in December last year and earlier this year in response to a difficult pricing environment. Sellers who moved to the sidelines should be drawn back to the market as prices rise further over the rest of the year and in early 2010.”

Source: The Canadian Press, cp.org, November 16, 2009

Edmonton, November 3, 2009: Resale housing sales continued their strong trend through October with sales of all housing types through the Multiple Listing Service® in October at the second highest level on record (after October 2006). There were 1,535 residential properties sold in October; up 23% from 2008 but down almost 10% from last month which follows the normal seasonal trend of month to month sales dropping through the fall.

“The housing market in Edmonton and area is still robust,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Homebuyers are confident about their future prospects and keeping an eye on the possibility that mortgage rates will rise. They can lock-in their housing costs for five years while rates are at historic lows if they buy in this market.”

Residential housing prices remained stable within typical ranges for seasonal fluctuations. Prices for single family dwellings were down 2.2%, on average* from last month but up marginally (0.12%) from last year. Condominiums were priced down 3.2% from September but the same price ($11 difference) as a year ago. Overall, the average residential price in October was $318,969, down 2.5% from last month but up a third of a percent from 2008. Single family dwellings sold for $363,694 and condos sold, on average, for $237,601.

There were 2,205 homes listed on the MLS® System in October with 1,535 sales for a sales-to-listing ratio of 70%. The total value of residential sales in October was $490 million and total MLS® System sales (including rural and commercial properties) is up over last year for the year-to-date to over $6.18 billion. Total available inventory was 5,530 homes which is a typical 3.5 month supply. Homes sold on average in 47 days (44 in September but 58 in October 2008).

“Good looking homes in the average price range always sell quickly,” said Ponde. “Less desirable homes may take a little longer to find a buyer and home sales at the upper price ranges are steady. It is important to consult your REALTOR® to devise a strategy for buying or selling a home to ensure you get the latest market and neighbourhood information.”

Source: REALTORS® Association of Edmonton

There has been some strengthening in Alberta’s resale market, said Lai Sing Louie, regional economist for CMHC in Calgary. “We’re expecting that the second half (of the year) will be much stronger than the first half,” he said. Most markets in Alberta have turned into balanced ones, added Louie. In the first quarter, they were generally buyers’ markets. Louie said low mortgage rates have been a big factor in spurring residential sales. “Affordability has improved quite significantly,” he said. “We’ve also seen some government incentives to encourage first-time homebuyers and that’s helped. And I also believe that people who have been waiting to see how the markets move finally have the confidence now to go into the marketplace and buy.”
2010 average price forecast for Alberta $343,200.

Source: Calgary Herald – Friday, August, 28 2009