Lori and Cliff Burlingame, holding blueprints of their home, are owners of Silvercliff Homes. Behind them are family members, some of whom now work for the company

Photograph by: Brian Gavriloff, The Journal, Freelance

More space leads wish list given to custom builders 

Build it — with creature comforts — and they will use it.

That’s what one Edmonton-area home builder has noticed as buyers in the greater Edmonton region are opting for more luxury-like features in today’s new homes.

What are buyers looking for? In short, more space.

And here’s how they’re using it: There’s virtually a bathroom for every bedroom, they’re adding more than just the one traditional walk-in closet, they’re selecting a variety of home entertainment settings — rooms uniquely designed for fun and games — and they’re selecting imaginative ways to camouflage kitchen storage.

“A lot of our homes are being built around entertaining,” says Cliff Burlingame, who along with his wife Lori runs Silvercliff Homes, an Edmonton-area custom home builder. “That’s the lifestyle now. There are games rooms, home theatres, larger living rooms and larger, open-concept kitchens where they can entertain more.”

But while the number of bedrooms remains roughly the same compared with homes they’ve constructed before, one trend Silvercliff is noticing is that extra closet space is a hot item, as are additional bathrooms — and this includes average-size family homes, not just the executive homes, they build.

“A lot of them are doing walk-in closets in all the bedrooms; that is quite a big thing,” says Lori. “We haven’t really noticed more bedrooms; if anything, there’s more bathrooms being attached to the kids’ bedrooms.”

It’s all a far cry from what the Burlingames have noticed in years past, where houses they worked on — renovations formed a larger part of their work back then — weren’t as distinctive when it came to upgrades as they are today.

The couple have home building in their blood — Cliff has been in construction for more than 30 years, while Lori handles the interior design end of the business as she has from Day 1. They believe in a personal approach, walking their clients through the building process to provide a home — be it a starter or an executive model — that meets the buyer’s desires. As the contractor, they organize and supervise the project, simply charging a fee for their involvement. As for the materials involved, they pass on their builder pricing — with no markups — to their clients.

Popular features

“Back in the ’90s it wasn’t like it is now,” says Lori. “Today, it’s more upscale and more money is being spent; they’re doing the extras like more expensive fixtures and upgrading cabinets. The kitchens have more gadgets; there’s lots of little niches for espresso machines and instant hot water taps and every home has a garburator now — in the ’90s, it was just more in upper-end homes.”

That, however, is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg when it comes to customizing homes for current buyers, be they young or old.

“If they’re not happy, we’re not happy,” says Cliff, who now counts his son Chase and daughters Brandi and Paige as part of the Silvercliff team.

Other popular new-home items include forced walkouts, double bathrooms and elaborate coffered ceilings, examples of which can be found in the Burlingames’ current home on the southwestern outskirts of Edmonton, in Leduc County.

Their custom-designed bungalow offers 2,430 square feet on the main floor and another 2,430 square feet in the fully finished basement, which Cliff notes is also a prevalent trend.

“A lot of people want finished basements,” says Cliff. “It all depends on affordability, but it’s a popular item.”

On the main level, the Burlingames’ home has formal and informal living spaces that are defined by various ceiling types, from barrel to cross-beam to coffered, all with diverse lighting effects.

The kitchen features a massive centre island with a country-style sink, raised eating bar and lower baking centre, and is also home to an intriguingly huge hidden pantry. At first glance, no one would ever know that part of the custom cabinetry is actually a cleverly hidden door that opens to a massive out-of-sight pantry.

Just off from the kitchen is a home office, but this one comes with a distinctive and useful Silvercliff twist.

“Probably 80 per cent of our clients nowadays have some sort of home-based business or work, so we tend to have offices in almost all of our houses,” Cliff says. “But we like to build the office so it can be converted from a study into a bedroom.”

He says this is quite useful as a family’s needs can change over the years.

Silvercliff creates this dual-purpose room by recessing a pocket in the wall to accommodate part of the buyer’s office furniture, be it bookcases or a shelving unit. Initially, the recessed area takes on a customized look once the office furniture is in place. When it’s time to convert, the furniture is removed and there is minimal construction to transform that portion into a closet by finishing it off with a set of double doors.

Downstairs, the Burlingames have incorporated a forced walkout. As opposed to traditional walkouts where lots are sloped, Silvercliff is able to include a walkout on traditional flat lots with a typical below ground basement.

By erecting six-foot concrete walls to keep the dirt from falling inward, they’re able to create an area where you can walk out of from the basement onto a patio, which then has a number of steps upwards to reach ground level.

“We’re basically putting retaining walls around your walkout area,” says Cliff. “And because of the retaining walls, it gives you a lot more privacy.”

The double bathroom, meanwhile, is something that originally just made sense for Cliff and Lori, who came up with the idea to make it easier to live with three kids growing up. In actuality, the double bathroom is really one bathroom but divided into two areas by a locking door. On one side, there are double sinks while on the other side of the door, there’s a bathtub, shower and the toilet, allowing more than one of the now grown up kids to use the bathroom at a time.

“It’s become really popular and now we build it all the time. It’s really ideal,” Cliff says. “One can be showering and one can be putting on makeup and they’re in two different rooms but in one spot.”

In fact, the features in their house, including the dramatic and comfortable home theatre and the separate games room with its pool table and hockey memorabilia, are so in demand that three other clients want Silvercliff to build them the exact same house, just in different locations.

On average, Silvercliff likes to limit the number of homes it builds to about half a dozen a year. This, says Cliff, makes it easier to focus on the quality and workmanship of the homes they construct.

A home may be one of the biggest investments you ever make. Saving up a down payment is just the first step. Find out more.

What factors affect the value of a home?

• Location: Real estate people always say “Location, location, location.” That’s because the area you live in will be the biggest factor affecting your home’s price. It’s smart to buy a home where housing prices are likely to increase. Also, the people who may buy your home from you one day may be willing to pay more for a home that is close to schools, sports centres, stores, services, and so on. Keep that in mind as you look.
• The condition of the home and the property it is on: Does the home need a lot of repairs? How is the roof, plumbing, and electrical wiring? A home in good repair may be worth more. Also, the condition of the outside of the home, the lawn, gardens, driveway, and trees will all affect the value of a home. These are the first things that buyers see, and are together known as curb appeal.
• Renovations and updates: An older home might need some work to keep it safe, modern, and comfortable. If you are buying at a home that has had some renovations, check the quality. When you do work on a home you own, do it as well as you can. Poor work can lower the value.
• The economy: There are some things you can’t control that affect house prices, like interest rates. Higher interest rates mean it costs more for a mortgage, so fewer people buy homes. When that happens, the prices of homes can fall. Lower interest rates, on the other hand, can boost buying and drive prices up. House prices often go up for a while, and then come down a bit. Try to find out as much as you can about how prices are changing, or may change, when deciding to buy or sell a home. Often there will be stories in the paper about housing prices.

How much is my home worth today?

If you’re considering buying a home, or you just bought one, you know how much it’s worth. But if you’ve owned your home for a while, its value has probably changed. Here’s how you can find out how much it’s worth now:

• Call a real estate agent: Ask them for an estimate of your home’s value. You may be able to get an agent to do this for free, because they hope to get your business in the future.
• Ask an appraiser: Your bank or a real estate agent should know a number of appraisers. Banks use them to estimate house values before they approve mortgages. You can also look in the yellow pages. An appraiser will charge a fee for the service.
• Check to see what other homes in your area have sold for recently: Compare your home with similar ones that have sold. Unless you keep up with what’s happening in your area, this information may be hard to get. Ask your real estate agent if you can’t find it yourself.

How much will my home be worth in the future?

To estimate a home’s future value, you will have to do some informed guessing. Start with finding out what has happened to prices in your location over several years.

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (MLS®)

Remember: There’s no guarantee what housing prices will do

Location and the condition of the home are both important factors, as is the economy as a whole.

A sold sign is displayed in front of a home in Toronto December 15, 2009. A red-hot housing market fueled by cheap money has helped Canada climb out of recession, but fears are growing that it could be a bubble much like the one that brought the United States to its knees.

OTTAWA – As Canada’s red-hot real estate market shows no signs of slowing down in 2010, analysts are beginning to caution some buyers that their best move may be to step to the sidelines.

“If you’re somebody in a situation that you have only five per cent down and you’re stretching to get in the market with a 35-year amortization, I think that would be a very precarious situation right now,” said BMO Capital market economist Robert Kavcic.

Conversely, he said, “if you’re sitting on a pile of cash and looking to move into the real estate market, it would almost be a no-brainer to just wait for lower prices.”

Notes of caution simmered to the surface this week after realtor Royal LePage forecast home prices would continue to “appreciate significantly” during the early months of the year. Already in 2009, they’re up 19 per cent, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The trouble is that while prices are rising, incomes are not.

Yet rock-bottom borrowing costs continue to lure buyers, and investors are rushing in – despite a shortage of listings – for fear that if they don’t get into the market now, they’ll miss their chance.

“It’s absolutely not debatable that housing prices cannot rise faster than incomes over the long term,” said Will Strange, professor of real estate and urban economics at the Rotman School of Management.

Sooner or later, incomes have to rise, or home prices fall, for balance to be attained.

Many analysts argue that home prices are not yet out of line with the incomes it takes to pay for them, Strange said. Yet with the job market still weak, and unlikely to drive new employment and higher wages, odds are that if something’s got to give, it will be prices.

“If I didn’t personally have most of my wealth tied up in housing, this would not be the time that I would choose to jump in,” Strange cautioned.

At the same time, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, which could leave some buyers in a position similar to U.S. homeowners, who had houses worth less than their mortgages after the subprime bubble burst and prices crashed.

“We’re certainly urging people to error on the side of caution,” said Bruce Cran, president of the Consumers’ Association of Canada.

“If you’re paying an amount of money, whatever that might be, that you couldn’t sustain if interest rates rose by say 25 or 30 per cent – I can see that being a problem for a lot of people.”

Canada’s not headed for anything similar to the U.S. subprime mess because lending standards here are higher and because people can’t just walk away from their homes as they can in the U.S., other than in Alberta.

But there may yet be an economic impact if home prices turn down, as home values relate directly to the economy, fuelling spending as they rise and tightening personal budgets as they fall, Strange said.

For now, many observers are predicting, as does Royal LePage, that the market will find its balance later this year as rates rise and more listings come on the market.

In the meantime, there are still many good reasons to buy a house, Strange said, “but don’t buy it because you think the price is going to go up.”

TORONTO — Canada’s residential real estate market is expected to remain unusually strong through the first half of this year after a strong finish to 2009, according to a survey published Thursday by Royal LePage.

The Royal LePage analysis is consistent with other recent reports on the state of the Canadian real estate market, which has rebounded over the past 12 months after sales dried up in late 2008 and hit a multi-year low in January 2009.

The Canadian market’s sudden plunge was sparked by a credit crunch that originated in the U.S. housing and lending industries – eventually spreading globally, causing a worldwide recession in the late summer and early fall of 2009.

However, the Canadian real estate market has been much quicker to recover than its American counterpart, in part because of a more stable banking industry, historically low interest rates and improving consumer confidence.

Royal LePage executive Phil Soper says Canada’s real estate market enters 2010 with “considerable momentum from an unusually strong finish to the previous year.”

The stimulus effect of low borrowing costs has contributed to a sharp rise in demand that has driven activity to new highs, he said in a statement.

Royal LePage says house prices appreciated in late 2009, with fourth-quarter price averages higher than in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The average price of detached bungalows rose to $315,055 (up six per cent), the price of a standard two-storey home rose to $353,026 (up 5.2 per cent), and the price of a standard condominium rose to $205,756 (up 6.4 per cent).

Regions that saw the strongest declines during the recession are now showing marked gains. Those regions include Toronto and the Lower Mainland, B.C.

Vancouver, which is frequently Canada’s most expensive real estate market, experienced a particularly robust quarter, with home prices rising across all housing types surveyed.

“No other sector of the economy has been as highly affected by economic stimulus as housing,” said Soper.

“As consumer confidence has improved, Canadians have shown a lingering reluctance to acquire depreciating assets such as consumer durables, but have embraced the opportunity to invest in real property.”

Royal LePage estimates that Vancouver’s real estate prices will rise a further 7.2 per cent this year, although February may be soft because of the Olympic Winter Games that will be held in the city and nearby Whistler, B.C.

Detached bungalows in Vancouver sold for an average of $828,750 in the fourth quarter, up 11.4 per cent from the same period last year. Standard condominiums in Vancouver went up 11.8 per cent year-over-year to an average of $452,750. Prices of standard two-storey homes in Vancouver rose 9.6 per cent year-over-year, selling at $917,500.

In Toronto, the average price of a standard condo rose 2.9 per cent to $309,316, detached bungalows rose 9.9 per cent to $446,214 and standard detached homes increased 3.5 per cent to $564,175.

In Montreal, the average price of a detached bungalow rose to $245,125 (up 3.1 per cent; a condo increased to $216,667 (up 16 per cent) and a two-storey house increased 12.3 per cent from a year earlier to $345,789, Royal LePage said.

The Greater Montreal Real Estate Board reported Thursday that the number of sales last year increased 41,802, up three per cent from 2008. The median price of a single-family home was $235,000 last year, up four per cent from 2008.

“Although sales decreased the first four months of 2009, Montreal’s real estate market rebounded and finished the year on a positive note,” said Michel Beausejour, the Montreal board’s chief executive.

The group that represents Toronto-area realtors reported Wednesday that there were 87,308 transactions last year through the Multiple Listing Service, a 17 per cent increase over 2008.

In December, there were 5,541 sales in the Greater Toronto Area (average price $411,931), up from 2,577 sales in December 2008 (average price $361,415), according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

The Toronto board also said the number of sales of existing homes rebounded in the latter half of 2009 after a slow start at the beginning of last year.

Royal LePage’s average price estimates for other Canadian cities include:

-St. John’s, N.L.: Detached bungalow, $217,167 (up 14.3 per cent); standard two-storey house $298,833 (up 14.1 per cent).

-Halifax: Detached bungalow, $238,000 (up 10.7 per cent); standard two-storey homes, $265,333 (up 1.8 per cent).

-Charlottetown: Detached bungalow, $160,000 (up 1.9 per cent); standard two-storey $195,000 (up 3.7 per cent).

-Saint John, N.B.: Detached bungalow, $228,000 (up 1.3 per cent); standard two-storey $299,000 (up 1.5 per cent).

-Moncton, N.B.: Detached bungalow, $152,300 in the fourth quarter (up 1.5 per cent); standard two-storey home, $131,000 (up 4.0 per cent)

-Fredericton: Detached bungalow, $182,000 (up 12.3 per cent); standard two-storey, $210,000 (unchanged).

-Ottawa: Detached bungalow, $332,417 (up 3.4 per cent); standard two-story home $331,917 (up 3.7 per cent).

-Winnipeg: Detached bungalow, $241,650 (up 9.9 per cent); standard two-storey home $275,500 (up 10 per cent).

-Edmonton: Detached bungalow, $299,286 (down 0.7 per cent); standard two-storey home, $340,557 (down 1.2 per cent)

-Calgary: Detached bungalow, $412,478 (up 0.5 per cent); standard two-storey home, $427,067 (up 2.3 per cent).

By David Paddon Copyright © 2010 The Canadian Press

Well I hope you all had a Happy Holiday!! Now it is time to start thinking about what might happen in the New Year. Current data that I use to forecast the market are skewed right now because of the holiday season so we will wait until we have new data next month to see where the market is going.

It seems the consensus that home values will go up in the New Year, but I don’t think that it will be as much as most people think.

Yes, there are parts of Canada that the market is really getting hot again – but that is only because their home values had dropped more than we had, and their economies were more depressed than what we had experienced here in Edmonton, and Alberta for that matter.

The recovery in the USA isn’t going as well as most people had hoped, and that will slow down any recovery we have here in Canada as they are our biggest trading partner.

I think we will more likely to see a 5% increase in home values as that would be more realistic. We might be able to get lucky and get up to 10%.

But this all could be brought to a halt or slow down as the finance minister is worried that Canadian people have taken on more debt than they ever have in the past. He is thinking about possibly making changes that will affect mortgages and real estate.

Some of the changes they are considering are raising the amount of down payment up from the current 5% to at least 10%. They are also talking about shortening the amortization period from the current 35 years. Another expectation is that the interest rates will be going up this year.

These factors will have a great impact on the ability for people to buy homes, especially for first time buyers. They will now have to wait longer to save for a down payment and they will now qualify for less of a home because of the lower amortization period.

The real estate cycle starts with the first time buyer. They need to get into the market so that everyone else can sell their home and move up into a bigger or more expensive home.

In my opinion if any of these changes are implemented you can expect the real estate market to slow down and curb the chances of valuations to go up.

So if you are a first time buyer I would advise you to do everything in your power to buy sooner than later. We might be able to help you with this process including helping you to get pre-approved with the lowest rates possible ( in many cases lower than the banks), and we can send you a first time buyer package.

To receive the package call Kate at my office at 780-643-8151 or send her an e-mail @ teamleadingedge@shaw.ca

Lets see what this month will give us and hopefully we will have a better indication as to what we can expect in this springs marketplace, and that is my two cents… Serge

Edmonton, January 5, 2010: Residential sales through the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® were at the second highest level ever for December (after a record number of sales in 2006 of 1,074). Sales of single family homes, condominiums, duplexes and other residential property totalled 948 units for the month. Total sales of all types of real estate for December was 1,066, also a second place finish for monthly sales.

The price of residential property remained stable in December with single family homes dropping just  one third of a percent and condos increasing 5.4% to reverse the 2.5% drop in November. An average* priced single family property in the Edmonton area sold for $366,761 in December; down from $368,018 in November. The average price for a condo was $244,174; up from $231,684 the previous month. The all-residential average price at the end of December was $319,201.

“Strong year-end sales put a crown on a year that started slow but ended big,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “We entered 2009 with a global recession at our backs and a real estate meltdown to the south. However consumer confidence in Alberta started to return in the second quarter and the real estate market in Edmonton was the first place in the country to show signs of the recovery.”

There were 19,139 residential sales in 2009 with record setting sales in June and July after the slowest start since 1996. From September to December residential sales were just below record sales set in 2006.

Throughout the year the average single family sale prices varied from a low of $347,000 in February to $373,000 in July; a $26,000 or 7.5% spread. The average year-to-date value was $364,032. Condo prices varied within a 9% range from $227,000 in February to $247,000 in June. The average year-to-date price was $240,322.

There were 1,118 homes listed in December resulting in a sales-to-listing ratio of 85%. The average days-on-market was 50 days and total residential sales were valued at $302 million for the month. Overall, the MLS® System had total sales of all types of property of just under $7 billion in 2009 as compared to $6.6 billion in 2008.

“We predicted residential sales of 15,550 this year and exceeded it in early October,” said Ponde. “We anticipated that single family prices would end the year at $352,000 and condos would be at $222,500. We are pleased that the year ended up better than we had anticipated and look forward to the stable market continuing into the next decade.”

Source: REALTORS® Association of Edmonton

Interest rates are about to start rocketing higher. Savers, get ready

You now have roughly six to nine months to get a personal plan together for dealing with higher interest rates.

After that, the ride begins. Where it ends depends on how smartly the economy and inflation snap back, but we could be looking at a prime rate of more than double the current 2.25 per cent by the end of 2011. Let’s look at four ways you can prepare:

1. Home buyers, lock down your mortgages

If you absolutely must buy a house in the overheated market in some big cities, then consider insulating yourself against rising rates by taking a five-year fixed-rate mortgage. A quick scan of mortgage brokerage websites shows five-year terms priced in the range of 3.69 to 3.99 per cent, while the big banks are advertising specials as low as 4.19 per cent.

Forget the research that shows you’ll save on interest over the long term if you go with a variable-rate mortgage. If you’re stretching for family cash flow to buy a house, then cost certainty is more important than potential savings.

Anyway, today’s five-year rates are quite good by historical standards. Bank of Canada data show the average five-year rate over the past decade was 6.8 per cent, which compares with a typical posted rate today of 5.5 per cent at many banks (this rate is bogus – always ask about the kind of discounted rates mentioned just above).

Note that seven- and 10-year mortgages are available today for rates as low as 5.2 to 5.3 per cent. I’ll have to investigate further, but this sounds reasonable from a historical point of view.

2. Homeowners, face the music

If your mortgage comes up for renewal in the next few years, brace yourself for higher rates and, thus, potentially higher mortgage payments. Suggestion: ask your lender for your projected mortgage balance at maturity and then use an online mortgage calculator to figure out how much your payments would be at various interest rate levels. Try: canequity.com/mortgage-calculator.

One suggestion for accommodating higher mortgage payments is to reduce your overall monthly debt carrying costs by paying down your line of credit.

Emergency measure: lengthen the amortization period on your mortgage on renewal. This is costly in terms of extra interest, but it will take the pressure off in terms of your payments.

Longer amortization periods are only a remedy for people who went with the standard 25-year payback period when they arranged their mortgages. People who started with a 30- or 35-year amortization have already played that card.

3. Enough with the bond funds already

As of the end of November, bond funds had the highest year-to-date 2009 sales for all broad fund categories at $11.3-billion. Bond funds were an ideal refuge during the worst of the bear market, but now they’re vulnerable to rising rates.

Already, a rising rate outlook is hurting bonds. In December, the biggest bond mutual and exchange-traded funds in the country were down anywhere from 1 per cent to 1.6 per cent. If interest rates move up modestly and gradually, then gains in bond funds will be hard to come by. If rates spike higher, bond funds will be money losers.

Investors buying bond funds for safety might consider guaranteed investment certificates as an alternative, particularly those from smaller banks and credit unions (all should be members of deposit insurance plans). Returns at the high end are typically in the range of 1 to 2 per cent at best for a one-year term, but rising rates will help on this front.

Balanced funds are hot these days, too. Remember that the whole point of these funds is to mix bonds and stocks together. You could argue that this approach just adds to your risk right now.

4. Savers, get ready

The benefit of rising interest rates is better returns for savers and conservative investors who rely heavily on GICs and high-interest savings accounts. High-interest accounts today pay no better than 1 to 2 per cent and, frequently, even less. These accounts will automatically start paying more once rates start rising. Among the beneficiaries will be all the people who have used high-interest products for their tax-free savings accounts.

With GICs, you’ll want to have money maturing later this year and 2011 to capitalize on higher rates. As ever, the best strategy for the most people is to invest equal amounts in GICs with maturities of one through five years. This laddering approach means you have money available for reinvestment every year, which means you’re good for the next few years of rising rates.

Follow me on Facebook. I’m at Rob Carrick – Personal Finance.

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Higher, but by how much?

Here are some recent forecasts of how high interest rates will rise this year and in 2011. The rate used here is the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. Banks are currently setting their prime lending rate two percentage points above the overnight rate, which is currently 0.25 per cent.

If you didn’t buy a house in July, the best time to buy may be running out, according to a new consumer-confidence survey.

The November Alberta consumer confidence index, released Saturday along with its sisteconomyer survey measuring business optimism by Leger Marketing and PricewaterhouseCoopers, show both groups expect continued economic recovery.

But while jobs will be more plentiful, consumers increasingly believe real estate will become more expensive in the near future.

The index of Albertans who believe buying a house in the near future is the best time to do so decreased to 147 in November, continuing its fall from a July peak of 164.

Survey questions in the study were used to produce index scores representing respondents’ confidence in a component of the economy. An index score above 100 represents an optimistic sentiment, and scores below 100 indicate pessimism.

“With signs of economic revival and potentially a real estate recovery, consumers may become less enthusiastic about purchasing a house in the future,” said David Bryan, an advisory partner at PriceWaterhouseCooper’s Edmonton office.

The overall consumer confidence index was 111, down slightly from 112 in September.

Consumers also continue to expect interest rates to rise as reflected by an index score of 63, steady from 65 in September.

Consumers’ optimism about the job market continues to increase. The future unemployment index improved for the fifth consecutive month to 106 in November, the report said. Confidence about employment crossed the 100 mark for the first time since May 2008.

“Overall, consumers are optimistic about the job market,” Bryan said. “Consumers continue to see these times as a good opportunity to buy homes and other major purchases, although to a lesser extent than in the previous quarter.”

But consumers remain conservative about major household purchases, with a November index score of 121, compared with 125 in September.

Meanwhile, businesses continue to become more optimistic about the economy: their overall confidence index rose for the fourth straight month to 109 in November.

In Alberta, 297 business leaders were surveyed in November, and 900 consumers were interviewed by phone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

By Bill Mah, Edmonton Journal

The Canadian housing market is getting dangerously close to “bubble territory” and is likely headed for a correction in the second half of 2010, according to a top economist.

“We are certainly at risk of a full-blown bubble,” said BMO Nesbitt Burns deputy chief economist Doug Porter, who expects to see a “modest” market correction next year with prices taking a hit.

The extent of the correction depends on how much prices increase in the next six months, he said. After dropping at the start of the year, resale house prices have surpassed the peaks of the past year. Research by the bank to be released Wednesday says housing valuations are likely “richer than equity valuations” in the current market.

“The higher we climb, the bigger the risk of a correction,” Porter said.

He said characteristics of a bubble economy include speculative buying, a massive amount of credit on the market, and sales and prices of homes “going north without the economy tagging along.”

Cities such as Vancouver and Toronto, which have had significant activity, stand the most risk of a correction, he said. “You are seeing a lot of line ups at sales centres and speculative buying in those cities.”

Existing home sales rose for the third straight month in November, up 73 per cent from 2008, according to figures released Tuesday.

A total of 36,383 homes sold in November, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. That figure is just under a percentage point short of equalling the November record for home sales set at the peak of 2007. The average price of a home was up 20 per cent year over year to $368,665.

In Toronto, sales hit 7,466, about double the total from last November, when the financial crisis set in.

The volatility means homebuyers continue to be nervous about the economy, according to a poll released Tuesday by Royal LePage of their 1,225 agents across Canada.

“This kind of unsustainable volatile market really creates uncertainty in people’s minds,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.

According to the poll, 38 per cent of Royal LePage agents say economic factors such as job security are the number one issue with buyers. Another 23 per cent said their clients fear they wouldn’t be able to get the price they wanted for their home, and 12 per cent said some customers are hesitant to sell because the market had not hit bottom. About 20 per cent said they had no concerns from clients.

Soper says that unlike the U.S., rapid price rises have been “a matter of weeks” during the second half of the year, compared with south of the border, where the bubble developed over more than four years.

“The market has a way of sorting through things and we hope it’s in a measured way. As affordability erodes one thing you will see is that more people won’t qualify for lending and activity will ease off,” said Soper.

Some good news for buyers is that the return of strong demand means that more sellers are returning to the market. Seasonally adjusted new listings rose 5 per cent on a month over month basis in November, the biggest monthly increase since January of last year.

Tony Wong
BUSINESS REPORTER

EDMONTON – More houses and condos will be built, more existing homes sold and it will be a little harder to find an apartment to rent next year.

And existing homes and rents are expected to cost more in 2010, a comprehensive new report on Edmonton’s housing market said Monday.

This strong rebound predicted for 2010 comes after housing starts in the Edmonton area hit bottom this year — the third straight year of decline, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday.

Builders are on pace to begin construction on 5,000 homes, 24 per cent fewer than the year before, said the national housing agency’s Fall 2009 Housing Market Outlook for the Edmonton census metropolitan area.

It is the lowest level of activity for the region’s homebuilders since 1997, said the report, and follows a 56-per-cent decline in total housing starts in 2008.

“While single-detached construction has staged a modest recovery since the summer, a continued downturn in the multi-family sector will hold down this year’s numbers,” the report said.

For 2010, the agency expects continued growth in single-family detached homes and a moderate rebound in multiples, boosting total starts by 29 per cent to 6,450 units. While that would be a considerable improvement over this year, it compares with an average of more than 10,600 units started every year from 1999 to 2008.

For 2009, a new single-detached home in Edmonton will be an average of $535,000, up 4.5 per cent over 2008.

Still, the CMHC predicts the average price will soften in 2010 by 2.8 per cent to$520,000 because of a “lagged effect” of when homes are priced and when they are completed.

On the other hand, the agency forecasts pressure for higher negotiated selling prices in 2010 from builders who had cut their margins over the past year to clear inventory. “With better economic times ahead, land and labour costs as well as material prices such as lumber and concrete are expected to increase.”

In the resale market, the CMHC predicts residential Multiple Listing Service sales will increase this year by eight per cent to 18,750 units. Last year was the slowest for Realtors since 2003, with saw sales falling 15 per cent to 17,369 homes.

“Provided the economy and interest rates perform as expected, CMHC looks for the upward trend to remain in place during 2010,” the agency said. Total MLS sales are forecast to rise another 9.3 per cent to 20,500 homes in 2010, which would approach the level in 2007, which was the second-best year on record.

The average residential MLS price will end 2009 close to $322,000, down 3.3 per cent from the 2008 average.

A balanced market in 2010 is expected to translate into modest price gains all year, with the average resale price rising 3.4 per cent to about $333,000, CMHC said.

Home-ownership costs will likely rise in 2010 as mortgage rates are at rock bottom and prices set to increase, the agency added.

In rentals, apartment vacancy rates across Greater Edmonton will continue to trend up this year. “But landlords should see a turnaround in 2010, provided economic conditions improve,” the report said.

The vacancy rate for October was an estimated four per cent, compared to 2.4 per cent a year earlier. It was the highest fall vacancy rate since 2005.

Factors in dampening demand for rental apartments were rising unemployment, more demand for home ownership and a steady influx of condominium units.

The agency sees the rental vacancy rate falling to 3.5 per cent amid fewer new apartments and strengthening demand.

CMHC expects its fall survey to show rents largely unchanged from October 2008. “With vacancy rates starting to subside in 2010, property owners will be looking to raise rents to offset rising operating costs, in particular utilities and property taxes,” the report said.

A typical two-bedroom apartment will rent for nearly $1,070 by October 2010, up about $35 a month on average compared with October 2009.

By Bill Mah, edmontonjournal.com