Edmonton Real Estate Blog

Edmonton, March 2, 2010: Prices for residential property sold through the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® changed marginally through February. Sales activity, however, was up dramatically when compared to last month or the same month last year.  

The average* single family dwelling price was $369,573 for February up just 1.4% from January; 5.6% from a year ago. Condominium prices dipped 3.8% in the month from $240,686 to $231,530. Duplex and rowhouse prices were up 3.3% to $315,390.

“While prices remained stable through February the increase in sales activity indicates that there is a demand for housing in the Edmonton area,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Listings also increased in February leading to a bigger month end inventory of homes and relaxing concerns that inventory may be too low to handle the spring buying season.”

In February, housing sales were up 33.9% compared to January with 1,184 residential sales. Total residential sales were also up 7.6% from last February. There were 2,505 residential listings added during the month resulting in a 47% sales-to-listing ratio and a month-end inventory of 5,449 homes. The average days-on-market was down 10 to just 47 days. Total sales through the Edmonton MLS® System (including residential, commercial and rural properties) in February were valued at $416 million (up 10.5% from last year).

“The upcoming changes to mortgage qualification rules and impending mortgage rate increases may prompt some buyers to enter the market earlier and cause some additional slowdown in the third quarter,” said Westergard. “As usual, REALTORS® will be challenged to be a voice of reason in the real estate transaction and work to meet the needs of their eager clients without putting their financial health at risk.”

A new and improved MLS® System statistics package is available to consumers at ereb.com with year-to-year comparisons and expanded reporting of the condominium market and new sub-market reports. The public will also find median prices in addition to the typical average price statistics.

Highlights of MLS® activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.

Source: REALTORS® Association of Edmonton

Well, it looks like we are going to have an early spring this year and the real estate market is reacting accordingly coming on strong early as well.

As of the morning there were 1,727 actives single family dwellings on the market in Edmonton proper on MLS, which is a slight increase from last week’s number of 1,669.  More and more people are putting their homes on the market on a daily basis.  This gives buyers more selection, but I am concerned that the increase in supply will start to surpass the demand at which point that will negatively affect valuations.

At this moment we are just fine.  The sales are increasing at a faster rate than the supply.  In the last 30 days there were 584 single family dwellings sold in Edmonton proper – an increase from last week’s number of 517.  More importantly, the listings to sales ratio is now below 3:1 at 2.96:1.  With that kind of ratio I expect to see valuations to start to increase immediately.  That is bad news for buyers and they will need to buy right away before prices rise again.

Please call me if you have any questions about this, or anything else related to Real Estate. I would love to help you out. (780) 634-8151

Serge Bourgoin founding and managing partner of Team Leading Edge at RE/MAX Elite

Team Leading Edge… Leading the way with extraordinary service

Edmonton’s ever improving economy continues to bolster residential real estate activity in the city. The number of homes sold in Edmonton is up 21 per cent to 884 units, while average price has largely stabilized at $314,783. Balanced market conditions have, for the most part, re-emerged in 2010. Values, still off peak 2007 levels, have hit a plateau, as buyers take advantage of opportunities at all price points.

The oversupply of listings available for sale throughout 2008 and 2009 has largely been absorbed, with inventory returning to more normal levels. Active listings now hover at 4,864, a decrease of 26 per cent from one year ago. While new listings have fallen off, the supply of homes listed for sale is adequate in most price ranges and neighbourhoods. First-time homebuyers continue to represent the lion’s share of activity in the marketplace, driving sales of homes priced from $300,000 to $350,000. Multiple offers are starting to occur, but they are the exception, rather than the rule. Move-up buyers have ramped up activity as well, spurred by exceptionally low interest rates. Condominiums have been moving steadily in recent months, but supply still exceeds demand.

A strong spring market is forecast for 2010, supported by a serious upswing in consumer confidence levels. Recent announcements regarding major investments in the oil sands have tremendous potential for Edmonton’s economic future. The provincial government is also co-operating with the major players in the oil industry to create a positive business climate and is expected to return to surplus budgets within three years. While there may be some skeptics in the audience, it’s hard to ignore the city’s growing optimism.

Active listings down in 81 per cent of markets in January

Lack of inventory will be the greatest challenge facing housing markets across the country this Spring, according to a report released by RE/MAX.

The RE/MAX Market Trends Report 2010, which examined real estate trends and developments in 16markets across the country, found that unusually strong activity during one of the traditionally quietest months of the year has led to a sharp decline in active listings in 81 per cent of markets surveyed. The threat of higher interest rates, tighter lending criteria, and in British Columbia and Ontario, the introduction of the new Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) have clearly served to kick-start real estate activity from coast-to-coast, prompting an unprecedented influx of purchasers. As a result, 87.5 per cent of markets posted an increase in sales in January. Average price appreciated in 81 per cent of markets surveyed.

Affordability is the catalyst for the vast majority of purchasers in today’s housing market. While homeownership is still within reach in many major centres, levels are slipping. There is a growing sense, on both sides of the fence, that the time to act is now.

Markets experiencing the tightest inventory levels include Toronto (- 41 per cent); Kitchener-Waterloo (-33 per cent); Ottawa (- 30 per cent); Victoria (- 30 per cent); Greater Vancouver (- 27 per cent); Halifax- Dartmouth (- 19 per cent); London-St. Thomas (- 18 per cent); Regina (- 16 per cent); and Winnipeg (- 13 per cent). Conditions were still balanced, but starting to tighten in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon, particularly in the single-family detached category.

The highest year-over-year sales gains were reported in Greater Vancouver (152 per cent), Kelowna (121 per cent), Greater Toronto (87 per cent), Victoria (69 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (58 per cent), London-St. Thomas (55 per cent) and Calgary (47 per cent). Western Canadian cities dominated the list of centres with the highest increases in price appreciation. These included Victoria at 25.5 per cent, Kelowna at 22 per cent, Greater Vancouver at 19.5 per cent, and Winnipeg at 17 per cent. St. John’s (23 per cent) and Toronto (19 per cent) were also among the frontrunners for price growth.

There have never been so many motivating factors in play at once. We’re in for a heated Spring market that will, in all probability, spill over into the summer months as the window of opportunity draws to a close. The supply of homes listed for sale has been drastically reduced, housing values are once again on the upswing, and banks and governments are moving in unison toward stricter lending policies.

While buyers are taking advantage of favourable conditions, sellers too are reaping the rewards. Competing bids are a factor in the marketplace once again, with well-priced listings-especially at the entry-level price point-experiencing multiple offers. Properties priced at fair-market value will likely sell quickly for top dollar. The overall pressure on sales and price is significant across the board – and it’s not likely to subside unless more inventory comes on-stream.

The level of frustration is growing, as pent-up demand builds. For every successful offer, there are those that will walk away empty-handed. They’re thrust back into the buyer pool and the process starts all over again. Some buyers are upping the ante, while others are considering alternate housing options. Still, purchasers remain cautious in their bids, with most careful not to max out debt service ratios.

Recent revisions to lending criteria will add fuel to the fire in the short term. Buyers considering a variable rate mortgage will step up their plans for homeownership in the next month or so just to get in under the wire. In the longer term, buyers will adjust, but move forward. Compromise has long been a reality-particularly in the larger centres. This simply means they may go smaller or further in their pursuits.

It’s been a 180 degree turnaround from this time last year. It’s clear that real estate from coast to coast has roared back to life and markets are once again firing on all cylinders. The vast majority of markets are now recovered and fully-evolved, with all segments working in tandem. At the luxury price point, activity was brisk in seventy-three per cent of centres surveyed, with momentum ramping up in the remainder. Opportunity exists in some areas, but the question is for how much longer?

Source: RE/MAX Market Trends 2010

This won’t hurt a bit, homebuyers.

The mortgage rule changes announced Tuesday by Financial Minister Jim Flaherty will weigh a bit on real estate speculators and heavily indebted people who want to fold their high-rate credit card debt into a lower-rate mortgage. But for rank and file homebuyers, the changes will barely be perceptible when they take effect on April 19.

“This should have a limited impact on what I see daily,” mortgage broker Peter Majthenyi said in an e-mail he fired off after Mr. Flaherty’s announcement. “I believe it’s more a message that ‘Big Brother’ is watching and cares.”

Olympics aside, the favourite Canadian diversion of the moment is to debate whether there is a bubble in the housing market. Those most worried about the housing market plunging have urged Mr. Flaherty to raise the minimum down payment for a home and reduce the maximum payback period.

But the 35-year amortization, favourite of first-time buyers across this land, remains. So does the 5-per-cent down payment, which is heavily relied upon in high-cost cities like Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto.

All the measures announced by Mr. Flaherty affect mortgages covered by government-backed mortgage insurance, where the buyer puts less than 20 per cent down. The key change for typical home buyers is that, regardless of what term or type of mortgage they choose, they’ll have to be able to afford the five-year rate.

This is a sensible way of building some slack into the system as we look ahead to a cycle of rising interest rates. If someone chooses a variable-rate mortgage, where the interest rate can be as low as 2 to 2.25 per cent today, they’ll have to be able to handle the payment at the current five-year rate. Right now, the posted rate at the big banks is 5.39 per cent.

You won’t have to actually make the higher payments required by the five-year mortgage. You’ll just have to theoretically be able to carry them and still remain within the limitations lenders set out on how much of your gross income can be consumed by debt (it’s 42 to 44 per cent, just so you know).

Mortgage brokers report that a lot of lenders were already ensuring clients could afford the payments on a three-year mortgage. So bumping up that up to a five-year term will only have a marginal effect.

“Are we going to see the odd borrower have to come up with more money or not buy they house they want? Absolutely,” Mr. Majthenyi said. “But will it have a dramatic effect? No.”

Another reason why the changes won’t be jarring is that a huge number of homebuyers are actually choosing five-year mortgages these days. A study issued by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals last month showed that fixed-rate mortgages accounted for 86 per cent of mortgages in set up in 2009 and, of those, 70 per cent were for a five-year term.

People who borrow to buy investment properties to either flip for a quick profit or to generate income are also affected by Tuesday’s announcement. If you buy a property you’re not going to live in, then you’ll have to put down a minimum 20 per cent to qualify for mortgage insurance. That’s up from 5 per cent.

But Mr. Majthenyi said not all lenders even require clients to have mortgage insurance if they put 20 per cent down. He also said that stiff mortgage insurance premiums already discouraged people from putting 5 per cent down on an investment property.

“In my office of 10 brokers, I don’t think I know of one client we’ve processed on a high-ratio rental property,” he said.

The final mortgage change restricts the ability of existing homeowners to refinance their mortgages to take on more debt. The new ceiling is 90 per cent of the value of your home, compared to the current 95 per cent.

Mortgage broker Jas Grewal said one group that will be affected by this is recent buyers who made a small down payment and are struggling with high credit card balances and other debts. By folding these debts into their mortgage, they can reduce their interest rate from as high as 19 per cent down to something closer to 3 or 4 per cent.

“Let’s say you put 10 per cent down – if we go from 95 to 90 per cent, you’re not going to be able refinance,” Mr. Grewal said. “You’re going to have to wait until your house value goes up and gives you some equity.”

Source: Rob Carrick of the Globe and Mail (www.TheGlobeandMail.com)

Early signs indicate that Canada’s hot real estate market surged again in January. Among the cities to report data, sales rose an average of more than 60 per cent, and prices more than 14 per cent, from a year earlier in Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa, BMO Nesbitt Burns said. In Toronto, sales jumped 87 per cent and prices 19 per cent. Earlier this week, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported that, excluding apartment properties, sales rose 141 per cent in January from a year earlier, and prices 19.5 per cent.

www.TheGlobeandMail.com

Edmonton, February 2, 2010: Single family homes sold through the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® System sold on average for the same amount in January as at year-end while condominium prices dipped 2%. Month-to-month sales slowed by 6.8% as compared to December but the number of new listings in January doubled the December numbers. 

The average* residential price was $314,783 for January, down 1.4% from last month and down just 0.7% from a year ago. Single family home prices on average were stable increasing minutely from $366,761 in December to $367,747 in January. Condominium prices dipped just 2% in the month from $244,174 to $239,006. Duplex and rowhouse prices were up 1.5% to $300,563.

“There will be month-to-month fluctuations in prices for all types of properties,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “We expect that the local market will continue to be robust and prices will trend upwards through the year.”

Compared to December, housing sales were down in January with 524 single family sales and 288 condominium sales. Total residential sales were 884 units – 154 ahead of last January. There were 2,199 residential listings added during January resulting in a 40% sales-to-listing ratio and a month-end inventory of 4,864 homes. The average days-on-market was 57 days. Total sales (including residential, commercial and rural properties) in January were valued at $315 million (up 19% from last year).

“While the low prices may have motivated some buyers, the continuing low interest rates are probably a bigger factor for first time and repeat buyers,” said Westergard. “The inventory increase shows that current owners are poised to enter the market and to offer their homes for sale. Buyers and sellers should consult their REALTOR® to work out an appropriate strategy for their situation.”

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Highlights of MLS® activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.

Source: REALTORS® Association of Edmonton

It can difficult to determine or predict when interest will go up.  But a survey done by MSN money came up with these results.  These are of course the opinion of people responding to a questionnaire on a website, and has no real scientific proof of when interest rates will go up.

• 1. Spring   17%
• 2. Summer  28%
• 3. Fall  36%
• 4. Not sure  19%

5284 responses, not scientifically valid, results updated every minute.

Homebuyers want smaller houses and they are willing to strip some of yesterday’s most popular rooms-such as home theatres-from them in order to accommodate changing lifestyles, consumer experts told audiences at the International Builders Show here this week.

“This is a traumatic time in (the United States) and the future isn’t something we’re 100 per cent sure about now either. What’s left? The answer for most home buyers is authenticity,” said Heather McCune, director of marketing for Bassenian Lagoni Architects in Park Ridge, Ill.

Buyers today want cost-effective architecture, plans that focus on spaces and not rooms and homes that are designed ‘green’ from the outset,” she said. The key for homebuilders is “finding the balance between what buyers want and the price point.”

For many buyers, their next house will be smaller than their current one, said Carol Lavender, president of the Lavender Design Group in San Antonio, Texas. Large kitchens that are open to the main family living area, old-fashioned bathrooms with claw foot tubs and small spaces such as wine grottos are design features that will resonate today, she said.

“What we’re hearing is ‘harvest’ as a home theme-the feeling of Thanksgiving. It’s all about family togetherness-casual living, entertaining and flexible spaces,” Lavender said.

Paul Cardis, CEO of AVID Ratings Co., which conducts an annual survey of homebuyer preferences, said there are 10 “must” features in new homes:

1. Large kitchens, with an island. “If you’re going to spend design dollars, spend them where people want them-spend them in the kitchen,” McCune said. Granite countertops are a must for move-up buyers and buyers of custom homes, but for others “they are on the bubble,” Cardis said.

2. Energy-efficient appliances, high-efficiency insulation and high window efficiency. Among the “green” features touted in homes, these are the ones buyers value most, he said. While large windows had been a major draw, energy concerns are giving customers pause on those, he said. The use of recycled or synthetic materials is only borderline desirable.

3. Home office/study. People would much rather have this space rather than, say, a formal dining room. “People are feeling like they can dine out again and so the dining room has become tradable,” Cardis said. And the home theatre may also be headed for the scrap heap, a casualty of the “shift from boom to correction,” Cardis said.

4. Main-floor master suite. This is a must feature for empty-nesters and certain other buyers, and appears to be getting more popular in general, he said. That could help explain why demand for upstairs laundries is declining after several years of popularity gains.

5. Outdoor living room. The popularity of outdoor spaces continues to grow, even in Canada, Cardis said. And the idea of an outdoor room is even more popular than an outdoor cooking area, meaning people are willing to spend more time outside.

6. Ceiling fans.

7. Master suite soaker tubs. Whirlpools are still desirable for many home buyers, Cardis said, but “they clearly went down a notch,” in the latest survey. Oversize showers with seating areas are also moving up in popularity.

8. Stone and brick exteriors. Stucco and vinyl don’t make the cut.

9. Community landscaping, with walking paths and playgrounds. Forget about golf courses, swimming pools and clubhouses. Buyers in large planned developments prefer hiking among lush greenery.

10. Two-car garages. A given at all levels; three-car garages, in which the third bay is more often than not used for additional storage and not automobiles, is desirable in the move-up and custom categories, Cardis said.

Source: Steve Kerch of Marktwatch (Yourhome.ca)

Average price up 19% nationally in December, but just 2.65% locally

Sales and prices of existing homes in Canada soared in December, capping a whirlwind 2009 that began weakly and then went on to set record highs for prices, and further stirring debate of a housing bubble.

The Canadian Real Estate Association said Friday that a total of 27,722 homes changed hands in December, up 72 per cent from the same month in 2008, when activity ground almost to a halt in the wake of the global financial crisis.

“Sales activity in 2009 came in like a lamb and went out like a lion,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger.

CREA said the national average price in December rose to $337,410, up 19 per cent year-over-year. For the year as a whole, the national average price climbed five per cent from 2008 to a record $320,333.

In the Edmonton region, the average residential price in December was $319,201, up 2.65 per cent year-over-year. For the year as a whole, Edmonton’s average price for a single-family home was $364,032 while the average for a condo was $240,322.

After the slowest start since 1996, resales in the Edmonton region reached 19,139 residential sales in 2009 to beat the forecast from the Realtors Association of Edmonton.

The Canadian association reiterated that the national average price was skewed due to activity in Canada’s priciest markets.

Year-to-date activity was still trailing 2008 levels at the end of September 2009, but a 59-per-cent year-over-year gain in the fourth quarter, the best ever, pushed 2009 sales activity above annual levels for 2008, it said.

The robust figures continue to show the housing sector is leading the overall domestic economy out from a long downturn. But the housing market’s strength has also been at the centre of a debate over whether a bubble in sector is forming.

“The raft of data will do nothing to quell talk of a bubble, talk that the Bank of Canada and the Canadian Real Estate Association have studiously downplayed,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“And, before we officially jump on the bubble bandwagon, we would again point out that the reported price change is skewed by the surge in Vancouver and Toronto sales.”

The Bank of Canada, ahead of its interest rate decision next Tuesday, said this week it was premature to talk about such a possibility, a view echoed by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on Friday.

“I do not see evidence of a bubble right now, but we’re going to keep watching. There are some steps we can take, that we will take if necessary,” Flaherty said Friday.

He pointed to tools the government could use to cool the market, including raising credit requirements for insured mortgages, ensuring cautious lending practices, and reducing the maximum amortization periods of mortgages.

Record-low interest rates have helped fuel the housing boom, while low supply and pent-up demand have also driven up prices.

But Scotia Capital economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes said “dismissing housing risks is being a tad Pollyannaish.”

They said in a report that it was likely that housing will “experience a more sudden decline in activity in the back half of the year and into 2011.

“The drivers are pointing to signifi-cant softening in both the supply and demand supports, such that downside risks to house prices by 2011-12 are material and merit caution,” the economists wrote in a report.

CREA said December sales records were reported in Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Average prices set annual records in a majority of local markets in 2009, and in every province except Alberta, the association said.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales totalled 46,805 units in December, concluding the strongest fourth quarter ever. A total of 137,957 homes were sold on a seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Edmonton Journal