Edmonton Real Estate Blog

Sept. 01, 2009

Well the month of August was pretty similar to what we saw in the month of July.    As of this morning there were 2,069 single family dwellings listed with the Edmonton Realtors Association on MLS.   In the previous 30 days there were 712 single family dwellings that sold. That would give us a listing to sales ratio of 2.9:1 a slight increase from last month, but still well below the 4:1 listing to sales ratio we need for a balanced or neutral market. 

I am not concerned with the slight increase in the ratio as I mentioned it is still below the neutral point and we have to take into consideration that it was August which is typically a slower month as people try the get the last of the summer holiday fun in, and then start to get prepared to get the kids ready for school.

I am expecting to see the sales start to increase in the month of September and October as we get into our normal fall market. Home valuations like most things are dictated by the law of supply and demand.  And at this time the lower ratio indicates a fairly high demand.

I expect the balance of the year to continue to be strong, but I do expect that 2010 will be even stronger, and valuations to continue to increase.

So what does that mean to you?  Well if you are a first time buyer you are going to want to get into the market as soon as possible.   If you are looking at selling your current home to move to a bigger or more expensive home you are going to want to do it as soon as possible.  However, if you are downsizing, or moving to a lesser expensive home then you want to wait for market valuations to continue to rise before you make your move.

Please feel free to give me a call anytime on my cell 780-995-6520 should you ever be curious on the value of your home and would like a free no-obligation comparative market analysis of your home.

Well the numbers today start to show a slowdown in sales.  But that is normal this time of year.  Typically we see a slowdown in sales in July and August, a seasonal slowdown and sales pick up again in September.

 As of his morning there were 2,167 single family dwellings for sale in Edmonton proper which is fairly steady in comparison for the last few weeks.  What has dropped off was the number of sales at 752 which is lower than we have seen in the last few weeks.

However that still give us a listing to sales ratio of 2.88:1 well below the 4:1 that we need for a balance or neutral market.  With that kind of ratio I expect valuation to continue to rise.

The average home that is selling is 1,453 sq.ft,, avg. selling price was $370,970, taking 36 days to sell, and selling within 97% of the listing price.  Keep in mind that avg. selling price and valuations are two different things.

If you have been thinking about buying your first home or upgrading to a bigger and more expensive home the sooner you do it the better off you will be.

Source of listing and sales data provided by the Realtors Assc. of Edmonton

Source: Lee Politano, Mortgage Specialist (780) 264-1749    TD Bank Financial Group

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

>>To view the full report click here<<

Source: Lee Politano, Mortgage Specialist (780) 264-1749    TD Bank Financial Group

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

• Minutes of the FOMC reveal that the Fed has upgraded its economic growth forecasts. The central bank now expects a contraction of -1.5% to -1.0% in 2009 and growth of 2.1% to 3.3 in 2010%.
• U.S. retail sales recorded a better-than-expected +0.6% in June, led by auto and gasoline sales.
• Housing starts in the U.S. jumped up to 582,000 in June, marking the second straight month of gains.
• U.S. headline CPI advanced 0.7% in June, but remain down 1.4% Y/Y; core inflation was up 0.2% on the month and 1.7% above year-ago levels.
• Federal deficit hit $1.1 trillion during the first nine months of the fiscal year beginning in October.
• Canadian manufacturing sector continues to reel from outside pressures as the downward spiral in manufacturing shipments continued with a 6.0% decline in May
• The domestic economy looks set to recover as both auto and home sales improve.

>>To view the full report click here<<

Well I am glad to be back from taking a 4 day long weekend, and we are back working and here to give you the update on the Edmonton Real Estate Market.

As of this morning there were 2,215 single family dwellings listed in Edmonton proper.  That number has been remaining fairly stable as of late which is a nice sign to see.  In the last 30 days there has been 938 sales of single family dwellings.  Again this has been a fairly stable number.

With those listings and sales that would give us a listing to sales ratio of 2.36:1, which would be a slight increase over last week.  However, this is still well below the 4:1 ratio that we need in Edmonton for a stable or neutral market.  This would indicate that we should continue to see an increase in valuations.

Now is definitely the time to buy before prices continue to go up.

The Edmonton real estate market continues to improve.  Currently there are 2,017 single family homes listed on MLS in Edmonton proper.  That is a drop from last week and is supporting the fact that there is a shortage of good quality listings.

In the past 30 days there were 884 sales.  Not the 1,000 sales that I would be looking for to happen in a normal market but with current inventory level is still a good number.

With those numbers that gives us a listing to sales ratio of 2.28:1.  Again a drop in the listing to sales ratio indicating that we are going to see continued upward pressure on valuations.

Buyers beware waiting to buy, and get into the market before prices go up any further.

Well you can’t say that I didn’t warn you.  The value of homes in Edmonton are on the rise, specially in the lower prices ranges.

As of this morning there were 2,337 single family homes listed as active in Edmonton proper.  In the previous 30 days there were 943 single family homes sold.  That would give us a listing to sales ratio of 2.48:1, which again is a lower ratio than the previous week. ( ratios taken on Monday morning have a tendency of being a little higer than those taken of Fridays.  Reason being with realtors now loading new listings into the system manually themselves can do so over the weekend but the sales that have occured over the weekend are not processed untill the business week.)

What that indicates to me is that if this trend continues the valuation recovery may happen quicker and be more pronounced than I originally had forcasted.

Should we be surprised??

Wow it is amazing how quickly the market can change.  Maybe we should not be so surprised, as I was astounded at how quickly the market changed back in May/June 2007.

In the recent weeks in working with buyers for homes under $350,000 it has been a real challenge.  If they were nice homes and priced well they were either sold or by the time we had a chance to write up an offer we were competing with other offers.  As usual, with multiple offers the homes end up selling for more than they were asking for originally.

At the time of my writing this article (June 03, 2009) in Edmonton proper there are 2,289 single family homes listed for sale.  In the past 30 days there has been 1,028 single family sold in Edmonton proper.  That would give us a listing to sales ratio of 2.23:1. 

In the last several weeks that ratio has dropped even further every week and is well below the 4:1 ratio we need in Edmonton for a balanced market.  So there is no doubt in my mind that valuations are rising and they are rising at a rate much higher than the average selling price is rising.  Remember there is a big difference between average selling price and valuations.

Average selling price reflects what the average individual is willing and capable of paying for a home.  Most people go to their bank or mortgage broker and find out how much of a mortgage they can qualify for and that is what they go out and buy.

However, valuation is a reflection of what you are getting for that dollar and that is what is really changing.  If you are thinking of buying and waiting then you are going to end up with a lesser home for the same amount of money.  So you better act now before prices go up higher. 

This is even more important for someone who is thinking of upgrading to a bigger or more expensive home.  Think of it this way: Your home is worth $300,000 and the home you are going to buy is worth $500,000.  Valuations rise by 10% which would mean your home went up $30,000 in value.  This sounds appealing but the home you were going to buy has now gone up $50,000.  Waiting ultimately cost you $20,000 on your mortgage.

Also it should be noted that right now the greatest increases in valuations are homes under the $350,000 price range as it represents 56.81% of all the single family homes sold.  The second highest group is the $350,000 – $450,000 price range representing 26.07% of the single family homes sold.  And finally the over $450,000 price range representing 18.68 %

Even though at the moment the greatest increases are the homes under $350K, we will soon see the valuations of the higher price ranges start to increase as the sellers of these homes under $350K are now in the market in the higher price ranges. 

For those of you who have been following my blog (http://Blog.FindMyHouse.ca) you should not be surprised at what is currently happening, as I have been forecasting this for weeks!

Ultimately what I am saying is stop waiting for the bottom as it’s already come and gone,  and get out and buy now.

And that is my two cents… Serge

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton reports that the number of residential properties sold through the Multiple Listing Service® in Edmonton in May was up over 17% as compared to the previous month and up 18.7% over the same month last year. There were 3,180 residential properties listed with sales of 2,161. The sales-to-listing ratio was 68% as compared to 42% in May 2008.

“Sales continue to rise month-by-month,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Listing activity, while not as frantic as last year, is still active so there continues to be a good supply and variety of homes available.”  

Prices in the local market also continued their slow, steady climb. Single family homes sold on average* for $367,672 in May; up 4% from last month but still 4% lower than a year ago. Condominiums sold for $244,734 on average which was 3.7% higher than April prices. Condos are still priced 6% lower than last year at this time. The average residential price was $326,332 up 4.6% from last month but down 4.2% from a year ago.

“Prices are still lower than last year but rising steadily,” said Ponde. “So house hunters should be making their buying decisions sooner rather than later to ensure that their buying power is not eroded by the rising prices.” He noted that some REALTORS® have been able to present multiple offers to their sellers.

At the end of May there were 7,435 homes available in the MLS® System inventory and homes sold, on average, in 52 days (as compared to 51 last month and 53 last May). At 3.4 months, there is a typical amount of inventory available at current sales volumes. Total MLS® System sales in May were 2,395 properties valued at $787 million. Year to date sales are valued at $2.5 billion. 

Highlights of MLS® activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.

Source: Realtors Association of Edmonton

I am amazed to see the listing to sales ratio continue to drop each week like we have seen in recent weeks.  There is no doubt in my mind that valuations specially in the under $350,000 is rising.  That is mainly due to the fact that the affordability and low interest rates has allowed the first time buyer to come back into the market.

As of this morning there were 2,289 single family homes listed for sale in Edmonton proper.  In the last 30 days 904 single family homes were sold.  That gives us a listing to sales ratio of 2.53:1 again a further drop from last week, and dropping us below the 4:1 benchmark needed for a balance market.

Eventually we should see the increased sales volume and valuation increases in the upper price ranges as the market continues to improve and we see the individuals who have sold their homes in  the lower prices purchase their new homes in the upper price ranges.

Let’s see what next weeks brings us…