Canada Sees Faster Recovery that Past Recessions
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Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) — The Bank of Canada said the economy this quarter will plunge instead of stalling, while anticipating a “faster” recovery than in earlier recessions as access to credit and exports rebound.
The central bank slashed its economic growth forecast for the first quarter, saying output will shrink at a 4.8 percent annualized pace after predicting in October that it would be unchanged. Gross domestic product will shrink at a 1 percent pace in the second quarter before expanding through 2010.
“The projected return to balance of the Canadian economy is faster than either of the recoveries following the 1981-82 and 1990-92 recessions,” the Ottawa-based central bank said today in an update to its October Monetary Policy Report. “Canadian credit conditions remain better than those in other major countries” and “exports are also expected to recover next year,” the bank said.
Governor Mark Carney two days ago cut borrowing costs by half a point to 1 percent, the lowest since the central bank was founded in 1934, and said he would “carefully” assess how much more stimulus may be needed. The world’s eighth-largest economy is shrinking because of slower foreign orders for goods such as cars and commodities such as crude oil, combined with the global credit crisis which has made banks reluctant to lend.
Currency Falls
The Canadian dollar weakened 0.7 percent to C$1.2637 per U.S. dollar at 11:53 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.2551 yesterday.
The economy will contract 1.2 percent this year, marking Canada’s first recession since 1992, and then grow 3.8 percent in 2010, the central bank said. That’s almost double the 2 percent expansion predicted by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
“We would love the Bank of Canada’s growth projections to turn out correctly, and maybe they will, but fear they are too optimistic on 2010,” Derek Holt, an economist with Scotia Capital Inc., wrote today in a note to clients. The bank may be “erring on the side of a relatively sanguine view of Canadian credit markets,” he said.
Exports will shave 2.6 percentage points off of economic growth this year, then add 2.1 percentage points in 2010, aided by a weaker currency and a rebound in U.S. demand, the bank said.
Even amid the financial crisis that has crippled access to credit in the world’s biggest economies, lending to businesses in Canada “grew at a solid pace” through November and household credit “has slowed only moderately,” the central bank said. The cost of borrowing for commercial lenders has fallen by 1 percentage point since October, the bank said, citing reductions in its own benchmark interest rate.
Gaining ‘Traction’
Also, actions taken by Canada and other countries to shore up credit markets and economies “are starting to gain traction,” the central bank said.
The report repeated that the Bank of Canada will assess “to what extent further monetary stimulus will be required” to meet its chief goal of keeping inflation at 2 percent.
Inflation will decline by 0.6 percent in the second quarter and 1 percent in the third and won’t return to the bank’s target until the first half of 2011, the bank said.
Consumer prices haven’t dropped for two or more consecutive quarters since 1953, according to Statistics Canada.
The Bank of Canada didn’t refer to its projection as a bout of deflation, saying risks to its inflation forecast are “roughly balanced.”
Further Tools
Deflation can freeze spending by business and consumers if they hold off on purchases in anticipation of ever-lower prices. Reversing deflation can be harder than inflation because central banks can only cut interest rates so low to encourage demand.
There was also no reference in the report to whether the central bank may eventually use policy tools other than interest-rate cuts to boost credit markets in Canada.
Carney, 43, said after his Oct. 23 forecast paper that Canada doesn’t need to consider buying direct stakes in banks as in the U.S. and some European countries, where governments are trying to catch up to Canadian lenders’ level of capitalization. In December, he said after a speech that it was “premature” to discuss such moves.
Still, Bank of Canada officials and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty have said the country’s banks, rated the soundest last year by the World Economic Forum, have scope to expand lending.
The next rate decision is scheduled for March 3.
The 1 percent policy rate that the Bank of Canada set two days ago is lower than a previous record of 1.12 percent in 1958 when the rate was based on treasury-bill yields.
To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Quinn in Ottawa at gquinn1@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: January 22, 2009 11:57 EST
